بعد تهديدات بايدن..كيف يمكن تجنب حرب كارثية محتملة بين واشنطن وبكين؟

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تسير العلاقات الصينية الأميركية في خط يتسارع فيه التوتر أو يتباطأ، لكنه لا ينخفض أبدا منذ سنوات، وبالتحديد منذ أن أدركت الولايات المتحدة أن نفوذ الصين العالمي، المرتبط بسياسات رئيسها شي جين بينغ التوسعية، وطريقة تعامله “الملكية” مع المؤسسات في الصين هو خطر على مستقبل البلاد، وربما العالم.
ويطرح رئيس الوزراء الأسترالي السابق، كيفن رود، في كتاب “الحرب التي يمكن تجنبها، مخاطر الصراع الكارثية بين الولايات المتحدة والصين تحت زعامة شي جين بينغ” سيناريوهات يعتقد الكاتب أنها ضرورية لتجنيب العالم مخاطر مثل هذا الصراع.
ويقول تحليل منشور في مجلة National Interest إن أهمية الكتاب تكمن من أن كاتبه لديه علاقات واسعة وعميقة ووثيقة مع بكين وواشنطن، وهو ليس أميركيا ولا صينيا، كما إنه مطلع بحكم منصبه على خفايا وكواليس، ومخاطر محتملة، أكثر من أي باحث عادي.
ويبدأ الكاتب بتحذير خطير يقول إن “وجهات النظر العالمية المهيمنة الآن في الصين والولايات المتحدة تدفع البلدين نحو الحرب”.
ويقترح رود وصفة لإدارة التوتر أسماها “المنافسة الاستراتيجية المدارة”، حيث تسعى بكين وواشنطن إلى التوصل إلى تفاهمات متبادلة وقواعد طريق التي تسمح لهما بالحفاظ على تنافسهما الاستراتيجي الحتمي ضمن حدود، مع تعظيم فرص التعاون حيث من الواضح أنه يخدم مصالح البلدين.
لكن رود، وفقا لمقال المجلة، يعترف بأن هذا سيكون صعبا للغاية بسبب “عدم الفهم المتبادل” و”التآكل شبه الكامل للثقة” بين الولايات المتحدة والصين.
كما أنه يدرك القيود السياسية الداخلية لدى البلدين التي ستجعل من الخطر على القادة على أي من الجانبين الدعوة إلى ضبط النفس أو أي شيء يشبه التسوية أو الاسترضاء.

ويقول رود، مع هذا، فإن البدائل -بما في ذلك المسار الحالي للأحداث- تخاطر بحصول الكارثة.
وفيما يدعو الكاتب الولايات المتحدة إلى التخلي عن “الذعر غير المبرر والقلق الاستراتيجي المفرط” من الصين، يشرح أيضا ما يعتقد أنها “رؤية شي جين بينغ للعالم”، والتي تم تنظيمها على أنها ” 10 دوائر متحدة المركز من الاهتمام”.
وتبدأ هذه بالأولوية القصوى للحزب الشيوعي الصيني المتمثلة في البقاء في السلطة والسيطرة، وتتسع لتشمل السعي الداخلي للحزب الشيوعي الصيني لتحقيق الاستقرار الاقتصادي والاجتماعي، وأمن الحدود، والسلامة الإقليمية، وسعيها الخارجي للنفوذ الإقليمي، والعالمي، والنفوذ، والأمن.
ويقول الكاتب إن الموضوع المتكرر الأكثر صلة بالعلاقات بين الولايات المتحدة والصين هو وجهة نظر بكين بأنها تتنافس مع واشنطن على جميع احتياجات الصين وأولوياتها تقريبا.
ويرجع ذلك إلى أن القادة الصينيين يرون في الازدراء الأميركي للحزب الشيوعي الصيني، وما يفسرونه في هدف واشنطن المتمثل في تغيير النظام في بكين، أكبر تهديد للاستقرار الداخلي للصين.
وبالمثل، فإنهم يرون (ما يفسرونه على أنه) سياسة الولايات المتحدة لاحتواء الصين إقليميا وعرقلة قوتها ونفوذها على الصعيد العالمي باعتبارها التحدي الخارجي الرئيسي للصين.
ويحدد رود بشكل شامل استراتيجية شي لمواجهة هذا التهديد المتصور، والتي تركز على تعزيز السلطة المحلية للحزب الشيوعي الصيني في الداخل، مع اتباع سياسات أكثر نشاطا وحزما في الخارج لتسجيل نقاط ضد الولايات المتحدة وتعظيم مكانة الصين العالمية ونفوذها.

وبعيدا عن الجدل بشأن ما إذا كان الكاتب منح شخصية شي “تأثيرا أكبر من حقيقته” على السياسات العامة للدولة الصينية، يقول الكاتب إن هناك قضية استراتيجية رئيسية واحدة يمكن أن يكون لميول شي الشخصية تأثير حاسم عليها، هي تايوان.
وأرسل الرئيس الأميركي، جو بايدن، رسائل مثيرة للاهتمام، الاثنين، حينما قال من اليابان خلال تأسيس اطار اقتصادي لدول آسيا والباسيفيك والولايات المتحدة، إن الولايات المتحدة ستتدخل عسكريا إذا اجتاحت الصين تايوان.
ويقول كتاب رود إنه “يبدو من المرجح بشكل متزايد أن شي سيرغب في محاولة تأمين تايوان خلال حياته السياسية”.
وعلى وجه التحديد، يتكهن رود بأن شي قد يرغب في أن يكون لدى بكين القدرة العسكرية للاستيلاء على تايوان، أو على الأقل أن يكون لديه “ميزة عسكرية كافية ضد الولايات المتحدة” للدفع إلى تسوية سياسية مع تايبيه.
ويقول إن بكين تسعى إلى “تخفيف القوة الأميركية وزيادة قوة الصين” في النظام العالمي.
وكذلك فإن بكين “تتحدى الشرعية السياسية وفعالية السياسة للنموذج الليبرالي الديمقراطي الغربي” وتسعى إلى “نظام مستقبلي أكثر استيعابا للأنظمة السياسية الاستبدادية”، و”أكثر ملاءمة لمصالح [الصين] السياسية والأيديولوجية والاقتصادية”.
وينتهي التحليل إلى أنه “في عالم الأفكار والأنظمة والحوكمة، يتمنى البشر أن يفوز أفضل فريق”، مضيفا أنه ينبغي أن يشعر “العالم الليبرالي الديمقراطي الرأسمالي” بالثقة، حيث إن أكبر خطرين على الولايات المتحدة هما أن تفقد أميركا ثقتها، أو أن أيا من الجانبين سيفترض أن “الفوز” يتطلب بالضرورة هزيمة الآخر.

ذات صلة

قانون نوبك..هل تنوي واشنطن معاقبة السعودية بعد أزمة أسعار النفط ؟

الحرب هناك والجوع هنا..كيف يقود الصراع الروسي الأمريكي العالم لأزمة غذاء طاحنة؟

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