التضخم يتجاوز 150%..الليرة التركية تتراجع والدولار يلامس 15 ليرة
تراجعت الليرة التركية 0.5 بالمئة إلى 14.95 مقابل الدولار، لتلامس أضعف مستوياتها في ما يقرب من شهرين مع تراجع عملات الأسواق الناشئة مقابل العملة الأمريكية.
وبحسب وسائل إعلام تركية، انخفضت الليرة 12 بالمئة تقريبا هذا العام، بالإضافة إلى 44 بالمئة خسرتها من قيمتها العام الماضي، ويرجع ذلك إلى حد بعيد إلى أزمة العملة الناجمة عن سلسلة من التخفيضات غير التقليدية لأسعار الفائدة.
وأدى تراجع العملة إلى تأجيج التضخم الذي فاق 70 بالمئة في أبريل وضغط على ميزانية الحكومة المركزية بعد أن أعلنت عن خطة لحماية الودائع بالليرة من انخفاض قيمة العملة.
حلق مؤشر الدولار بالقرب من أعلى مستوياته في 20 عاما مقابل العملات الرئيسية المنافسة ، إذ عززت عمليات بيع في الأسواق المالية في مواجهة مخاوف من ركود عالمي العملة التي تعتبر ملاذا آمنا.
وقال اقتصاديون أتراك مستقلون من مجموعة الأبحاث بشأن التضخم (إيناغ) إن التضخم بلغ في الحقيقة 156,86% على أساس سنوي، أي أكثر من ضعف النسبة الرسمية.
على صعيد البيانات الرسمية، تجاوزت نسبة التضخم 70% خلال عام واحد في تركيا قبل أيام، مؤثرةً على العائلات وعلى فرص إعادة انتخاب الرئيس رجب طيب أردوغان في 2023.
ولم تُجدِ وعود الحكومة وخفض ضريبة القيمة المضافة على المواد الرئيسية مطلع العام، إذ استمر ارتفاع الأسعار بنسبة 7,25 بالمئة في أبريل، رافعاً التضخم إلى أعلى مستوى منذ فبراير 2002.
ارتفاع الأسعار
وتواصل ارتفاع أسعار مواد الاستهلاك خلال الأشهر الأحد عشر الماضية، متخطياً نسبة 61 بالمئة على أساس سنوي، نتيجة انهيار الليرة التركية وارتفاع أسعار الطاقة.
ورغم المخاوف من حدوث ارتفاع جديد في الأسعار مرتبط بالحرب بين أوكرانيا وروسيا، التي تستورد تركيا منها الطاقة والحبوب، لم يرفع البنك المركزي التركي أسعار الفائدة المُحدَّدة بـ 14% منذ نهاية عام 2021.
يعتقد الرئيس رجب طيب أردوغان، خلافًا للنظريات الاقتصادية التقليدية بأن أسعار الفائدة المرتفعة تعزز التضخم، ودفع البنك المركزي إلى خفض سعر الفائدة الرئيسي من 19% إلى 14% بين سبتمبر وديسمبر، ما أدى إلى انهيار الليرة.
بالتالي، شهدت العملة انهياراً بنسبة 44% مقابل الدولار في عام 2021، وخسرت مرة أخرى أكثر من 11% مقابل الدولار منذ الأول من يناير.
يشكل التضخم محور المناقشات في تركيا قبل 14 شهرًا من الانتخابات الرئاسية المزمع عقدها في يونيو 2023، واتهمت المعارضة مكتب الإحصاء الوطني (تويك) بالتقليل من حجم نسبة التضخم عن قصد.
رغم تنبؤ استطلاعات الرأي بانتخابات صعبة، يأمل أردوغان بإعادة انتخابه في 2023، بعد عقدين تولى خلالهما رئاسة الوزراء ثم منصب الرئيس.
وكان أردوغان وعد في يناير الماضي بخفض التضخم “في أقرب وقت ممكن”، وأكد الأسبوع الماضي أنه “سيبدأ بالانخفاض بعد مايو”.
ويهدد التضخم المستمر بالتأثير على شعبية الرئيس الذي بنى نجاحاته الانتخابية خلال العقدين الماضيين على وعود بالازدهار.
واضطر البنك المركزي الأسبوع الماضي إلى رفع توقعاته لنسبة التضخم بحلول نهاية العام، مقدراً أنها ستبلغ 42,8 بالمئة، ما يتخطى نسبة 23,2 بالمئة المُعلن عنها سابقاً.
وبحسب أحوال تركية، اعتبر المحلل في مؤسسة “بلوأست مانجمنت” والمتخصص بالشأن التركي تيموثي آش، أن “الأمر أصبح محرجًا لتركيا. بالتأكيد هناك ارتفاع في أسعار الغذاء والطاقة، لكنه أيضًا فشل ذريع للسياسة النقدية التركية”.
وقال جيسون توفي من مؤسسة كابيتال إيكونوميكس ومقرها لندن إن التضخم سيستمر بالارتفاع في الأشهر المقبلة، و”لا يوجد مؤشر على أن البنك المركزي التركي على وشك رفع أسعار الفائدة”.
ذات صلة
وزير مالية أردوغان يدعو لمحاكمة إقتصاديين بسبب تغريدات عن انهيار الليرة التركية
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