بعد تحالفه مع المتطرفين..ماذا تعني عودة نتنياهو لرئاسة الوزراء فى إسرائيل ؟
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أظهرت النتائج الأولية للانتخابات الإسرائيلية العامة اكتساح اليمين المتطرف الأصوات بشكل غير مسبوق؛ حيث فاز معسكر اليمين بقيادة بنيامين نتنياهو بنحو 65 مقعداً؛ ليستعد بذلك لتشكيل أكثر حكومات الاحتلال تطرفاً منذ نشأة الكيان عام 1948. فماذا يعني ذلك بالنسبة للفلسطينيين ودول المنطقة وكذلك العلاقات مع الولايات المتحدة؟
نتنياهو عاد ليحكم من جديد
بابتسامة وحماسة كبيرة، أعلن نتنياهو لمؤيديه، بعد ساعات من إغلاق صناديق الاقتراع وبدء الفرز صباح يوم الأربعاء 2 نوفمبر/تشرين الثاني 2022، انتصاره في الانتخابات أثناء كلمة ألقاها في مقر الحملة الانتخابية لحزبه الليكود؛ إذ قال: “انتصرنا في اقتراع ضخم بالحصول على ثقة الشعب الإسرائيلي.. نحن على وشك تحقيق نصر كبير للغاية”.
وتعهد نتنياهو الذي يحاكم بتهمة الفساد بتشكيل “حكومة وطنية مستقرة” هي السادسة له في تاريخ الكيان، بينما قاطعته الحشود التي كانت تغني “بيبي ملك إسرائيل”، وأضاف نتنياهو: “الناس يريدون طريقاً مختلفاً.. يريدون الأمن، يريدون القوة وليس الضعف… يريدون الحكمة الدبلوماسية ولكن بحزم”.
في الوقت نفسه، يستعد إيتمار بن غفير وقائمته الصهيونية المتطرفة -التي يشار لها حتى من قبل البعض في إسرائيل على أنها حركة إرهابية– لأن تكون ثالث أكبر حزب في البرلمان بعد صعودها القوي في الحياة السياسية الإسرائيلية، وقد أظهرت النتائج الأولية حصول قائمة بن غفير على نحو 14 مقعداً وهو رقم غير مسبوق.
ويعوّل نتنياهو على دعم بن غفير وزعيم حركة “الصهيونية الدينية” بتسلئيل سموتريتش لتشكيل الحكومة؛ حيث وعد نتنياهو بن غفير شخصياً بالحصول على حقيبة وزارية في حكومته، وهو ما يعني أن هذه الحركة التي تتبنى شعار “الموت للعرب” وتنادي بهدم المساجد على رأسها المسجد الأقصى وبناء الهيكل المزعوم، سيكون لها دور كبير في قرارات الحكومة القادمة.
ماذا تعني عودة نتنياهو وصعود الحركة الكهانية بالنسبة للفلسطينيين؟
بكل تأكيد، فإن عودة نتنياهو مصحوباً بتيار الحركة الصهيونية والكهانية ليس خبراً جيداً بالنسبة للفلسطينيين، لأنه يعني مزيداً من التطرف والاستيطان وشن الحروب، وبالتأكيد موت أي أمل لدى السلطة الفلسطينية بعودة المفاوضات أو حتى حل الدولتين المزعوم.
وذلك لأن هذا التيار الذي قد يحصل على أكثر من حقيبة وزارية، لديه مخططات علنية لطرد الفلسطينيين من الداخل المحتل ومن أراضي “يهودا والسامرة” أي الضفة الغربية، ويدعو باستمرار لتدمير الأقصى ويدافع عن قتل العرب لكونهم عرباً، بل ويجاهر بحماسه لإحراق الكنائس.
ويشبه البعض صعود الحركة الكهانية كأنه كصعود تنظيم “داعش” في الانتخابات والبرلمانات العربية والإسلامية، وبصعودها غير المسبوق نحو السلطة، ستصبح الحركة الكهانية ضمن النظام السياسي للكيان الإسرائيلي بشكل أكبر وأعمق من السابق، لتمرر من خلال حكومة نتنياهو خططها ومشاريعها المتطرفة في الأراضي المحتلة، وإذا حاول نتنياهو رفض ذلك ستنهار حكومته، مما يعني سيبقى هذا التيار يبتز نتنياهو على الدوام.
كيف سينعكس فوز نتنياهو على دول المنطقة؟
يرى محللون أن عودة نتنياهو للحكم مجدداً، وفوز الحركة الكهانية غير المسبوق وحصولها على حقائب وزارية في الحكومة القادمة سيكون له تأثيرات هائلة على الصراع والبيئة الإقليمية وحتى على العلاقات مع الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية.
وعلقت صحيفة “هآرتس” في افتتاحيتها صباح الأربعاء 2 نوفمبر/تشرين الثاني 2022 بالقول إن “إسرائيل الآن على حافة ثورة يمينية ودينية وسلطوية، هدفها تدمير البنية التحتية الديمقراطية التي بنيت عليها الدولة. قد يكون هذا يوماً أسود في تاريخ إسرائيل”.
وسينعكس هذ الصعود الذي يقوده نتنياهو بشكل سلبي بكل تأكيد على العلاقات مع دول المنطقة؛ مثل الأردن التي وصلت الخلافات بينها وبين حكومات نتنياهو السابقة إلى أسوأ مراحلها منذ توقيع اتفاقية “وادي عربة” عام 1994.
وكان ملك الأردن شخصياً عبّر عن ذلك في أكثر من مرة، بل إنه حتى اجتمع العام الماضي مع خصوم نتنياهو مثل بيني غانتس بشكل سرّي في عمّان، وأكد لغانتس أنه لا يفضل التعامل مع نتنياهو، وهو ما تسبب حينها بغضب من قبل الأخير الذي منع ولي العهد الأردني الأمير الحسين بن عبدالله من دخول الأراضي المحتلة لزيارة المسجد الأقصى، لترد عمّان بعد ذلك بمنع مرور طائرة نتنياهو من أجوائها؛ حيث كان سيزور أبوظبي في 11 مارس/آذار 2021.
لكن في المقابل، قد يلقى نبأ صعود نتنياهو في الانتخابات وعودته إلى السلطة، وقعاً إيجابياً على موجة التطبيع في المنطقة، ولدى دول مثل الإمارات والبحرين التي وقعت اتفاقات “أبراهام” مع حكومة نتنياهو قبل نحو عامين، أو حتى لدى السعودية التي أشار نتنياهو في أكثر من مناسبة، إلى احتمال عقدها اتفاق تطبيع مع إسرائيل، رغم نفي الرياض ذلك.
وفتحت السعودية أجواءها الجوية لأول مرة منذ إنشاء الكيان الإسرائيلي، في يوليو/تموز الماضي؛ حيث باركت الإدارة الأمريكية القرار الذي يشمل الرحلات الجوية من وإلى إسرائيل، واصفة أنه “جاء نتيجة دبلوماسية الرئيس بايدن المستمرة والمبدئية مع السعودية على مدى عدة أشهر”.
بالنسبة للعلاقات مع الولايات المتحدة؟
في الوقت نفسه، لن تكون الإدارة الأمريكية برئاسة جو بايدن سعيدة كثيراً بفوز نتنياهو ومجموعة من الكهانيين المتطرفين الذين يدعون لـ”موت العرب”؛ حيث إن خطورة وصول هذه القوى لمقاليد الحكم في إسرائيل أمر غير مسبوق، ولم يروّج أي زعيم إسرائيلي على الإطلاق لحزب كهاني بشكل صريح كما فعل نتنياهو، ناهيك عن ضمّه إلى الائتلاف الحاكم وإعطائهم وزارات.
وحول ذلك يقول ريتشارد سيلفرشتاين، الباحث والصحفي اليهودي الأمريكي، في مقالة سابقة بموقع MEE البريطاني، إنه في عام 1988، كان حزب “كاخ” الذي أسسه الحاخام مئير كهانا -مُعلّم إيتمار بن غفير الذي فاز بالانتخابات إلى جانب نتنياهو- خارج التيار الرئيسي للدولة تماماً، لدرجة أن الحكومة حظرته، وأعلنت كل من إسرائيل والولايات المتحدة أن “كاخ” منظمة إرهابية. فكيف ستتعامل واشنطن الآن مع وزير في حكومة نتنياهو يعتبر “مئير كهانا” هو قدوته الأسمى؟!
تغيير جذري
وهناك أسباب أخرى لانزعاج واشنطن، حيث مرت العلاقات بين نتنياهو وبايدن العام الماضي في حالة برود شديد؛ بسبب علاقات نتنياهو القوية مع ترامب، حيث امتنع بايدن عن الاتصال برئيس الوزراء الإسرائيلي بعد فوزه بالرئاسة، وأثار ذلك غضباً داخل الأروقة الإسرائيلية، وظل الوضع كذلك إلى أن خسر نتنياهو انتخابات مارس/آذار 2021 أمام تحالف بينيت ولابيد وغانتس.
وفي حين سعى ترامب إلى إرضاء قاعدته الانتخابية المسيحية الإنجيلية التي تدافع بشدة عن إسرائيل، عمل بايدن على إثارة استياء “الحليف الأساسي” في الشرق الأوسط “إسرائيل” على خلفية ملف الاتفاق النووي الإيراني الذي لم تتوقف إسرائيل عن التنديد به.
كما نددت إدارة بايدن بالتوسع الاستيطاني الذي عملت عليه حكومة نتنياهو ورفضت قرار ضم الجولان لإسرائيل وكذلك قرار ضم الضفة الغربية الذي طرح إبان فترة الرئيس ترامب، وأظهرت إدارة بايدن أنها متمسكة بحل الدولتين.
ويقول المحلل السياسي لموقع “والا” العبرية باراك رافيد، إنه “إذا كانت هذه هي نتائج الانتخابات الإسرائيلية، وهذه هي الحكومة القادمة (حكومة نتنياهو)، فإن العلاقات بين إسرائيل والولايات المتحدة ستتغير بشكل كبير، هو الأعمق منذ 1948″، مضيفاً في تغريدة له: “سيكون هناك تغيير جذري”.
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