مع تصاعد الأحداث..ما السيناريوهات المحتملة للصراع العسكري فى السودان؟

تطورات متسارعة تشهدها الساحة السودانية منذ اندلاع الصراع المسلح بين قائد الجيش السوداني ورئيس مجلس السيادة عبد الفتاح البرهان ونائبه قائد قوات الدعم السريع محمد حمدان دقلو بزعامة الشهير بـ حميدتي.
وفى الوقت الذى تتواصل فيه الاشتباكات المسلحة فى أنحاء العاصمة الخرطوم، بدأت معظم الدول فى إجلاء بعثاتها الدبلوماسية التي لم تحظي بأى حصانة حيث أعلنت الخارجية المصرية وفاة مساعد الملحق الإداري فضلا عن تعرض أحد أفراد طاقم سفارتها فى الخرطوم لإطلاق نار، كما تعرض موكب السفارة الفرنسية لهجوم خلال إجلاء دبلوماسيها.
وتشير الأحداث على الأرض إلي أزمة ربما لن تنتهي قريبا فى ظل التقارب فى الإمكانيات بين الجيش السوداني وقوات الدعم السريع، فضلا عن وجود داعمين دوليين وإقليميين لكلا الطرفين.
ميدانيا..انتشرت عمليات السلب والنهب فى المدن السودانية، حيث تعرضت الكثير من مخازن الشركات الكبري والمنازل للسطو فى ظل حالة الانفلات الأمني بالبلاد.
وحذرت الأمم المتحدة بالسودان، من قرب نفاد الغذاء والوقود وغير ذلك من الإمدادات الحيوية لدى سكان السودان، مؤكدة أن نظام الرعاية الصحية أيضا معرض لخطر الانهيار.
ويحذر خبراء ومراقبون من تحول السودان لمنطقة صراع جديدة بين القوي الإقليمية والدولية بما يؤدي لاطالة أمد الحرب الأهلية فى البلاد التي قد تتسبب فى وقوع أزمة غذائية كبيرة نظرا لضعف مؤسسات الدولة السودانية.

صراع دولي وإقليمي
ويري رامي زهدي الخبير فى الشؤون الأفريقية “إن السودان من أول الدول الأفريقية التي ظهر فيها بداية الصراع بين الروس والأمريكان على منطقة بورسودان المطلة على البحر الأحمر أحد أهم المناطق الاستراتيجية الأمنية فى العالم ثم دخلت باريس على الخط وأقامت مؤتمر دولي لأصدقاء السودان المانحين لدعم العملية السياسية فى السودانية وذلك بالتنسيق مع الدولة المصرية”.
وأكد “إن السودان مع بداية الأزمات السياسية والانشقاقات ظهرت أطراف كثيرة تحاول التدخل فى الشأن السوداني سواء بالسلب أو الإيجاب وهو ما جعل من عملية التفاوض بين الفرقاء السودانيين محل تداخل من قوي إقليمية ودولية مثل الاتحاد الأفريقي والأمم المتحدة، كما ظهرت قوي إقليمية مثل السعودية وتركيا إضافة للدور المصري نظرا لما يمثله الوضع السوداني من تأثير على القاهرة”.
وبحسب خبير الشؤون الإفريقية فإن الصراع فى السودان ما كان ليشتعل بين الدعم السريع والجيش السوداني دون أن يكون لكلا الطرفين داعمين خارجيين دوليين أو إقليميين سواء دعم مباشر أو غير مباشر، مشيرا إلي أن الدعم الخارجي لكلا الطرفين ربما يصل لمرحلة الامداد بالسلاح والمشاركة فى العمليات على الأرض بشكل كامل.
وأشار إلي أنه ” لا يخفي على أحد أن كلا الطرفين له علاقات متشعبة بدول إقليمية ودولية متعددة، حميدتي على سبيل المثال يلتقي برؤساء دول منها روسيا وهو أمر غير منطقي نظرا لكونه أحد القيادات العسكرية ولا يحق له القيام بأدوار سياسية، كما إن البرهان كان فى زيارة شبه دائمة للقاهرة رغم أنه فى هذا التوقيت كان ضمن مجلس سيادي سوداني يقود العملية السياسية ولم يكن رئيس دولة” .
وتابع ” واضح أن كل الأطراف عنده ما يدفعه للإرتكان لقوي دولية وإقليمية، مثل الولايات المتحدة وروسيا ، إضافة للدول الخليجية التي تعتبر أحد أكبر المستثمرين فى السودان”.
سيناريوهات الأزمة السودانية
ويعتقد خبير الشؤون الأفريقية أن هناك سيناريوهات متعددة ربما أسوءها استمرار الصراع دون حل أو حسم من أحد الطرفين بحيث تستمر المعارك لفترات دولية دون أن يستطيع أى طرف حسمها لصالحه وهو ما سيؤدي لاستنزاف طاقة ومقدرات الدولة السودانية الضعيفة بالأساس وهي دولة لا تستطيع مواجهة ذلك لأنها ضعيفة الأركان اقتصاديا ومجتمعيا وحياتيا وقد نصل لأوضاع انسانية أصعب مما حدث فى دول مثل ليبيا التي لم تشهد على طول أزماتها أى نقص فى السلع أو الغذاء فى حين أن السودان قد تكون أقرب للأزمة اليمنية التي وصلت فى بعض مراحلها للمجاعة.
أما السيناريو الثاني بحسب زهدي فهو “تحقيق أحد الطرفين انتصار حاسم يقضي به أحدهما على الأخر وهو أمر لا يمكن الجزم به او تحديد من يستطيع ذلك نظرا لوجود تقارب فى العدة والعتاد لكلا لطرفين، ولكن ربما يمكن القول أن القوات السودانية تعتبر الأقرب للحسم نظرا لانها تمتلك زيادة نوعية فى العدد والسلاح كما أنها تمتلك شرعية وربما تحصل على دعم العشائر والقبائل السودانية” .
ونوه إلي أن “السيناريو الثالث هو ظهور قوة ثالثة موازية للقوتين المتحاربتين مثل حدوث اتحاد للقبائل أو تجمع لمجتمع مدني أو حراك شعبي يرفض ما يحدث من صراع ثم يميل لأحد الجبهتين دون الأخري وفى هذه الحالة سيكون الأقرب هو دعم الجيش والقوات السودانية نظرا لما تمثله من شرعية وفق الذهنية الشعبية على عكس الدعم السريع التي قد يعتبرها البعض حركة متمردة منشقة لا يجوز لها الخروج بهذه الطريقة”.
أما أخر السيناريوهات بحسب الخبير المصري فهو “التفاوض ودخول قوى إقليمية ودولية لجمع الأطراف على مائدة تفاوض والبحث عن حلول للأزمة لافتا إلي أن هذا الأمر ربما يكون احتمال ضعيف نظرا لكون العملية السياسية فى السودان مستمرة فى المفاوضات بين الأطراف المختلفة على مدار أكثر من عامين دون الوصول لحلول جذرية ووصل الأمر فى النهاية للصراع المسلح بين الأطراف وبالتالي لا يمكن التعويل على هذا الأمر نظرا لأن كلا الطرفين لن يقبل بوجود الطرف الأخر على الاطلاق”.

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