مؤامرة أم مناورة| كيف تؤثر محاولة اغتيال بوتين على حرب أوكرانيا؟

يبدو أن هناك من لا يريد للحرب الروسية الأوكرانية أن تضع أوزارها فكلما اقتربت نار من الخمود صب فوقها مزيدا من البنزين، لتشتعل أكثر وأكثر وهو الأمر المتوقع خلال الأيام المقبلة خاصة بعد إعلان موسكو استهداف مسيرات أوكرانية لمبني الكرملين فى محاولة لاغتيال بوتين، وهو ما نفته كييف بشدة..ويبقي السؤال من وراء محاولة اغتيال بوتين وما سيناريوهات الحرب بعد هذه العملية ؟
وأعلنت روسيا الأربعاء 3 أيار / مايو إسقاط طائرتين مسيّرتين استهدفتا الكرملين أطلقتهما أوكرانيا.
ووصف بيان للكرملين هذه العملية بأنها “عمل إرهابي ومحاولة اغتيال رئيس روسيا الاتحادية”.
وقال ديمتري بيسكوف، المتحدث باسم الكرملين، يوم الخميس 4 أيار إن الولايات المتحدة تدعم “بدون شك” الهجوم المزعوم، مضيفا بحسب وسائل إعلام”القرارات بشأن مثل هذه الهجمات لا تُتخذ في كييف، ولكن في واشنطن”.
تهديد روسي
ودعا الرئيس الروسي السابق ديمتري مدفيديف إلى “تصفية” الرئيس الأوكراني فولوديمير زيلينسكي. بالمقابل،
بدوره، أكد وزير الخارجية الروسي، سيرغي لافروف، الجمعة 5 أيار 2023، أن بلاده تعتزم الرد بخطوات ملموسة على الهجوم الذي استهدف مبنى الرئاسة “الكرملين” بطائرات مسيرة.
وصف لافروف الهجوم على الكرملين بأنه “دنيء وعدواني”، مبيناً أن “إرهابيي كييف لا يمكنهم فعل ذلك دون علم أسيادهم”، على حد قوله، وأكد أن موسكو سترد بخطوات ملموسة على هجوم الكرملين.

نفي أوكراني وأمريكي
من جانبها، نفت الرئاسة الأوكرانية أي علاقة لكييف بالهجوم الذي أعلنت عنه موسكو.
وقال الرئيس الأوكراني، فلوديمير زيلينسكي، إن بلاده لم تستهدف الرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين أو العاصمة الروسية موسكو، مؤكدا أن الجيش يقاتل فقط على الأراضي الأوكرانية.
و خلال مؤتمر صحفي للرئيس الأوكراني مع قادة دول شمال أوروبا في العاصمة الفنلندية هلنسكي، اعتبر زيلينيكسي إن “بوتين يحتاج إلى تحفيز شعبه، لأنه لم يحقق انتصارات”.
كما فسر مستشار الرئيس الأوكراني ميخايلو بودولياك الاتهامات الروسية على أنها مؤشر للاستعداد لـ”استفزاز واسع النطاق من قبل روسيا خلال الأيام القادمة”، بحسب وسائل إعلام.
بدورها، نفت الولايات المتحدة الادعاءات الروسية بأن واشنطن دبرت هجوما مزعوما على الكرملين بغية اغتيال الرئيس فلاديمير بوتين.
ووصف جون كيربي، المتحدث باسم الأمن القومي الأمريكي، الأمر بأنه “ادعاء سخيف”.
وبحسب مراقبون فإن اغتيال بوتين ليس بالعملية السهلة التي يمكن تنفيذها عن طريق استهداف الكرملين بطائرات مسيرة خاصة فى ظل ما تمتلكه روسيا من إمكانيات تقنية وأجهزة تشويش لحماية زعيمها وقيصرها.

سيناريوهات العملية
ويري شريف سمير الكاتب والمحلل السياسي المصري أنه ليس من السهل التخلص من رجل شديد المراس كالرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين.
وقال لوكالتنا “بوتين شخصية سياسية ذو كاريزما زعيم وعقل رجل مخابرات بامتياز، وهذا النوع من البشر يصعب اختراق حواجزه واصطياده برصاصة اغتيال أو قصفه بطائرة مسيرة”
وتابع ” حادث الكرملين يضع أمامنا عدة سيناريوهات تتخذ مسارات قد تحدد مستقبل الحرب علي أوكرانيا ومصيرها بحلول الصيف الملتهب”.
وبحسب الباحث المصري فإن “السيناريو الأول تتجه فيه أصابع الاتهام مباشرة إلي الخصم الأوكراني باعتباره المتضرر الرئيسي من الغزو علي مدار أكثر من عام ونصف، ويسعي الرئيس الأوكراني فلوديمير زيلينسكي إلي الحصول علي دور البطولة في مشهد نهاية أحلام القيصر الروسي .. ورغم نفي كييف لهذا الاتهام، إلا أن الشبهات تحوم دائما حول نظام زيلينسكى إذا ما تعلق الأمر بأية محاولة للإطاحة ببوتين وتحرير القارة البيضاء بأسرها من قبضته العسكرية وامتلاكه مفاتيح الطاقة والغاز” !
ونوه إلي أن “السيناريو الثاني محوره العدو الأمريكي اللدود الذي هدد الدب الروسي مصالحه وأجهض مشروعاته السياسية والاقتصادية في أوروبا ، وقد تخطط المخابرات المركزية الأمريكية “سي آي إيه” بالتنسيق مع وزارة الدفاع “البنتاجون” لإنهاء حياة لاعب الشطرنج القديم ببنادق عملاء وجواسيس أوروبا، لاسيما وأن بوتين العنيد لايتخلي عن توسعاته ويستهدف الاستيلاء علي كل دول الجوار لتعويض خسائر الماضي معتمدا علي قوة الحليف الصيني من ناحية، وانقسام الكتلة الغربية وتصدع الاتحاد الأوروبي من ناحية أخري .. ولاتتردد واشنطن في فعل أي شئ لوقف الزحف الروسي بخطوة “كش مات” .. حتي وإن اقتضي الأمر إصدار التعليمات بالقتل الصريح .. من وراء الستار!!

السيناريو الأقرب
ويرجح الباحث المصري “فكرة السيناريو الثالث في قصة محاولة اغتيال بوتين وهو استخدام القيصر الروسي ذكاؤه وخبث خلفيته الاستخباراتية في تأليف واقعة محاولة الاغتيال ورسم مشهد محبوك سياسيا حول ملابساتها لدعم مبرراته في استئناف الغزو الروسي لأوكرانيا وتصعيد طبول الحرب لاستكمال ما بدأه ..معتبرا إن “إتقان التمثيلية كفيل بتغذية النزعة الانتقامية داخل بوتين ليواصل العمليات العسكرية ويستعين علي نطاق واسع بأحدث الأسلحة والذخائر بدعم صيني لحسم المعركة الكبري”.

بوتين المستفيد الأكبر

وأكد سمير أن “الانشغال بهذه الاحتمالات والإجابة عما هو أقربها إلي الصواب قد يفيدنا فقط في معرفة من أطلق الرصاص علي بوتين ولكنه لن يثني الزعيم الروسي عن المضي قدما في مخططه الساعي لتمزيق القارة العجوز، لافتا إلي أنه بغض النظر عن الفاعل الحقيقي، فإن الحادث سيجعل الأيام القادمة تحمل تصعيد كبير فى الحرب الروسية الأوكرانية خاصة مع إصرار بوتين مواصلة الحرب وتحقيق أهدافه بغض النظر عن حجم الضحايا أو الخسائر .
وشدد الباحث المصري على أن بوتين هو المستفيد الأكبر من الحادث حيث سيسعي لتعزيز موقفه ونزعته العدوانية فى الحرب واستغلال الموقف أحسن استغلال.

الصين وصناعة السلام
واستبعد فكرة حدوث سلام بين روسيا وأوكرانيا فى القريب العاجل برعاية صينية خاصة بعد الحادث الأخير مشددا على أن فرص السلام ضعيفة جدا أمام أطماع وطموحات بوتين الذى لن يتورع عن استغلال حادث الكرملين فى مواجهة أى أصوات داخلية أو خارجية تطالب بوقف الحرب.
واعتبر الباحث المصري أن ما تبديه الصين من رغبة وما تقوم به من لقيادة عملية سلام بين موسكو وكييف مجرد موقف شكلي وغير جدي غرضه اثبات الوجود الصيني فى المشهد فقط، مشددا على أن الصين فى الأساس تدعم روسيا فى مواجهة المصالح الأمريكية والغربية.

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