الحرب مستمرة..ماذا ينتظر السودان بعد تعليق مباحثات جدة ؟
مشاركة
Advertisements
تتجه الأحداث السودانية على ما يبدو لمزيد من التصعيد والعنف، خاصة بعد إعلان الولايات المتحدة والسعودية تعليق مباحثات جدة لوقف إطلاق النار بين قوات الجيش بقيادة عبد الفتاح البرهان وقوات الدعم السريع بزعامة محمد حمدان دقلو.
ووفقاً للبيان المشترك الذي أصدرته الرياض وواشنطن، فإن قرار تعليق مباحثات جدة جاء بسبب “الانتهاكات الجسيمة” المتكررة لوقف إطلاق النار من قبل الجيش السوداني وقوات الدعم السريع.
ودمرت الحرب المستمرة في السودان منذ سبعة أسابيع، مناطق في وسط الخرطوم، وهددت بزعزعة استقرار المنطقة الأوسع، وأدت إلى نزوح 1.2 مليون شخص داخل السودان، وفرار 400 ألف آخرين إلى الدول المجاورة.
واعتبر البيان السعودي – الأمريكي المشترك أن طرفي الصراع “يدعيان أنهما يمثلان مصالح الشعب السوداني، لكن أفعالهما زادت من معاناة السودانيين وعرضت الوحدة الوطنية والاستقرار الإقليمي للخطر”.
عقوبات أمريكية
وأعلنت الولايات المتحدة، الأسبوع الماضي، فرض عقوبات على الجهات التي وصفتها بأنها “تؤجج العنف” في السودان.
وذكرت وزارة الخارجية الأميركية أن البيت الأبيض “فرض قيوداً على تأشيرات سودانيين، بينهم مسؤولون في الجيش وقوات الدعم السريع، وأفراد من النظام السابق للرئيس عمر البشير؛ بسبب مسؤوليتهم أو تورطهم في تقويض انتقال السودان إلى الديمقراطية”.
كان الرئيس جو بايدن مهد الطريق للعقوبات في الرابع من أيار الماضي، عندما أصدر أمراً تنفيذياً وسّع فيه سلطات واشنطن للرد على أعمال العنف، والمساعدة في إنهاء الصراع وأعلنت وزارة الخزانة الأميركية في بيان، إدراج 4 شركات في قائمة العقوبات، وهي: شركة (الجنيد) للأنشطة المتعددة المحدودة، التي يسيطر عليها قائد قوات الدعم السريع محمد حمدان دقلو، وشقيقه نائب قائد قوات الدعم السريع عبد الرحيم دقلو، وشركة (تريدف) للتجارة العامة التي يسيطر عليها الرائد في قوات الدعم السريع، ألقوني حمدان دقلو، وهو أيضاً شقيق قائد الدعم السريع، و(منظومة الصناعات الدفاعية السودانية)، وشركة (سودان ماستر تكنولوجي) التي تنتج أسلحة ومركبات للجيش السوداني.
وحسب مراقبين، فإن الصراع في السودان لن ينتهي دون حسم عسكري من أحد الطرفين بصورة تجبر الطرف الآخر على القبول بمخرجات أي حوار والالتزام به.
الحسم العسكري
واعتبر الباحث السوداني سليمان السباعي أن البيان الأمريكي السعودي بتعليق المفاوضات وفرض العقوبات على شركات تابعة لقوات الدعم السريع والجيش السوداني جاء من أجل الضغط على أطراف الصراع؛ من أجل العودة إلى التفاوض وحل النزاعات حلاً سلمياً والوصول إلى وقف دائم لإطلاق النار في السودان”.
وقال السباعي: “الأوضاع في السودان في ظل زيادة وتيرة الاشتباكات لا نرى فيها غير الحل العسكري لأن قوات الدعم السريع لا تنوي الالتزام بما وقّعت عليه من إخلاء للمستشفيات والمناطق الحيوية ومنازل المواطنين، كما تقوم بحشد قواتها ويتم رصد تحركات لها، لذلك لا بد للقوات المسلحة ان ترد على مثل هذه الخروقات، لذلك لا نرى غير الحل العسكري لإنهاء الصراع في السودان”.
وعن أسباب فشل الجيش في حسم المعارك، على الرغم من مرور قرابة شهرين على اندلاع الصراع، قال الباحث: “إن حرب المدن ليست مثل باقي الحروب، وخاصة في الإطار الزمني وفي اسلوب الحسم؛ لأن المعركة تدور داخل الأحياء والمناطق السكنية لافتاً إلى أن “الجيش لدية القدرة على حسم المعركة في غضون 72 ساعة، لكن ما هي الأضرار التي سوف تترتب عليها دمار يعم البلاد”.
وأكد السباعي “أنه حتى هذه اللحظة، لم يستخدم الجيش السوداني القوة المميتة كما وصفها الفريق أول ركن عبد الفتاح البرهان القائد العام للقوات المسلحة، كما أن “هناك صواريخ شواظ (صواريخ سودانية) لم يتم استخدامها وهي قادرة على مسح مربع سكني كامل وهناك القوة القصوى للطيران الحربي لم تستخدم بعد”، فضلاً عن أن هناك أعداد من أفراد القوات المسلحة في وضع الاستعداد لم يتم الاستعانة بهم بعد، مشيراً إلى أن “القوات المسلحة حتى هذه اللحظة استخدمت 15% فقط من قوتها لذلك هناك تأخير في حسم المعركة مراعاة للمواطن السوداني”.
سيناريوهات الصراع
وأشار الباحث السوداني إلى أن هناك عدة سيناريوهات لإنهاء الأزمة الراهنة أولها؛ هو الجلوس إلى طاولة الحوار وتوقيع اتفاق سلام وإنهاء الحرب، لافتاً إلى أن هذا السيناريو يرتبط بشروط معينة.
أما السيناريو الآخر، حسب السباعي، فهو “استمرار الحرب والقضاء على التمرد دون الحاجة إلى الجلوس من أجل التفاوض، ولكن هذا سوف يترتب عليه مزيد من المعاناة والدمار خاصة أن هناك انقسام في الأوساط السودانية، فهنالك من ينادي باستمرار الحرب والقضاء على التمرد وهنالك من يدعو لوقف الحرب وإحلال السلام”.
ويعتقد الباحث أن نتائج المعارك في الأيام المقبلة سوف توضح خارطة الطريق للصراع، سواء يتم حسمها حسماً عسكرياً أو يتم العودة للمفاوضات، مشيراً إلى أن الجهات الدولية يمكنها ممارسة المزيد من الضغط على طرفي النزاع من أجل وقف الحرب بفرض المزيد من العقوبات، لافتاً في الوقت نفسه إلى أنه يمكن للطرفين مواصلة الاقتتال في ظل هذه العقوبات.
موقف الأطراف السودانية
وعن دور الأطراف السودانية في وقف الصراع، يرى الباحث أن “هناك أطراف سودانية تقوم بمساع من أجل وقف الحرب الدائرة بين القوات المسلحة والدعم السريع، ولكن كثيراً منهم يخشى توصيفه بالخيانة، خاصة أن التوجه الشعبي فى السودان يدعم القوات المسلحة ويعتبر الصراع معركة كرامة للجيش والشعب السوداني الذي يرى الدعم السريع مجرد عملاء ومرتزقة موالين لمن يدفع لهم المال وليسوا أصحاب عقيدة”.
وختم السباعي حديثه، بالتأكيد على أن “العودة لمباحثات جدة وإحياء فرص السلام ما زالت قائمة بالسودان بشرط التزام قوات الدعم السريع بالشروط التي وضعها الجيش السوداني والتي يعلمها الجميع وأهمها الخروج من المستشفيات ومنازل المواطنين والخروج من المرافق الحيوية”.
Hi there just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The text in your content seem to be running off the screen in Internet explorer. I’m not sure if this is a format issue or something to do with web browser compatibility but I thought I’d post to let you know. The style and design look great though! Hope you get the problem solved soon. Cheers
Howdy I am so thrilled I found your weblog, I really found you by error, while I was searching on Digg for something else, Nonetheless I am here now and would just like to say thanks a lot for a marvelous post and a all round exciting blog (I also love the theme/design), I don’t have time to read through it all at the minute but I have saved it and also added in your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read a lot more, Please do keep up the superb job.
I truly love your blog.. Very nice colors & theme. Did you create this site yourself? Please reply back as I’m planning to create my very own website and want to know where you got this from or exactly what the theme is called. Thanks!
Hi! Quick question that’s entirely off topic. Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly? My blog looks weird when viewing from my iphone. I’m trying to find a theme or plugin that might be able to correct this problem. If you have any suggestions, please share. With thanks!
Wow! This blog looks exactly like my old one! It’s on a entirely different topic but it has pretty much the same layout and design. Outstanding choice of colors!
Thank you, I have recently been searching for information approximately this topic for a while and yours is the best I have found out so far. However, what about the conclusion? Are you positive about the source?
Heya i’m for the primary time here. I came across this board and I in finding It truly useful & it helped me out a lot. I am hoping to offer something back and help others like you helped me.
Hey! Do you know if they make any plugins to help with SEO? I’m trying to get my blog to rank for some targeted keywords but I’m not seeing very good gains. If you know of any please share. Cheers!
I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own blog and was wondering what all is required to get set up? I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny? I’m not very internet savvy so I’m not 100% sure. Any recommendations or advice would be greatly appreciated. Kudos
We are a group of volunteers and starting a new scheme in our community. Your web site provided us with helpful information to work on. You have performed an impressive task and our whole group shall be grateful to you.
Hi! This is my 1st comment here so I just wanted to give a quick shout out and tell you I truly enjoy reading through your blog posts. Can you suggest any other blogs/websites/forums that deal with the same subjects? Thanks a lot!
I am extremely inspired with your writing talents and alsosmartly as with the layout in your blog. Is this a paid topic or did you customize it yourself? Either way stay up the nice quality writing, it’s rare to see a nice blog like this one these days..
hi!,I really like your writing so much! percentage we keep in touch more approximately your post on AOL? I need an expert in this area to solve my problem. May be that is you! Looking forward to see you.
Hey There. I found your blog using msn. This is a very well written article. I will be sure to bookmark it and come back to read more of your useful information. Thanks for the post. I will definitely comeback.
After checking out a few of the blog posts on your website, I really like your way of blogging. I saved it to my bookmark site list and will be checking back soon. Take a look at my web site as well and let me know what you think.
We stumbled over here from a different website and thought I may as well check things out. I like what I see so now i’m following you. Look forward to checking out your web page again.
Good day! I know this is kinda off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could get a captcha plugin for my comment form? I’m using the same blog platform as yours and I’m having difficulty finding one? Thanks a lot!
Have you ever considered about including a little bit more than just your articles? I mean, what you say is fundamental and all. However think of if you added some great visuals or video clips to give your posts more, “pop”! Your content is excellent but with images and clips, this website could undeniably be one of the greatest in its niche. Wonderful blog!
Hello would you mind stating which blog platform you’re working with? I’m planning to start my own blog in the near future but I’m having a difficult time making a decision between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal. The reason I ask is because your design and style seems different then most blogs and I’m looking for something completely unique. P.S My apologies for getting off-topic but I had to ask!
Hey! This is my 1st comment here so I just wanted to give a quick shout out and tell you I genuinely enjoy reading through your blog posts. Can you suggest any other blogs/websites/forums that go over the same subjects? Thanks a lot!
I am extremely impressed with your writing skills and also with the layout on your blog. Is this a paid theme or did you customize it yourself? Either way keep up the nice quality writing, it’s rare to see a nice blog like this one these days.
My partner and I absolutely love your blog and find the majority of your post’s to be what precisely I’m looking for. Would you offer guest writers to write content for yourself? I wouldn’t mind publishing a post or elaborating on some of the subjects you write related to here. Again, awesome web log!
It’s actually a nice and helpful piece of information. I’m glad that you simply shared this helpful info with us. Please stay us informed like this. Thanks for sharing.
Hi! I’ve been following your site for a while now and finally got the bravery to go ahead and give you a shout out from Humble Tx! Just wanted to mention keep up the great job!
I like the valuable information you supply on your articles. I will bookmark your weblog and check again here frequently. I am slightly certain I will be informed lots of new stuff right here! Good luck for the following!
Whoa! This blog looks exactly like my old one! It’s on a entirely different topic but it has pretty much the same layout and design. Great choice of colors!
Good day! This is my 1st comment here so I just wanted to give a quick shout out and tell you I genuinely enjoy reading through your blog posts. Can you suggest any other blogs/websites/forums that go over the same subjects? Thanks a lot!
I have been surfing online more than three hours these days, yet I never found any interesting article like yours. It’s lovely worth enough for me. Personally, if all webmasters and bloggers made good content as you did, the internet will be much more useful than ever before.
Nice blog here! Also your website loads up fast! What host are you using? Can I get your affiliate link to your host? I wish my site loaded up as fast as yours lol
With havin so much written content do you ever run into any problems of plagorism or copyright violation? My website has a lot of exclusive content I’ve either authored myself or outsourced but it appears a lot of it is popping it up all over the web without my agreement. Do you know any solutions to help reduce content from being ripped off? I’d genuinely appreciate it.
Hello there, You have done an excellent job. I will definitely digg it and personally recommend to my friends. I am sure they will be benefited from this site.
A person necessarily help to make critically articles I would state. This is the first time I frequented your web page and thus far? I amazed with the research you made to create this actual submit incredible. Fantastic activity!
I’m impressed, I must say. Rarely do I encounter a blog that’s both educative and entertaining, and let me tell you, you have hit the nail on the head. The issue is something not enough people are speaking intelligently about. I’m very happy that I found this in my search for something relating to this.
I do believe all the concepts you have presented on your post. They are very convincing and will definitely work. Still, the posts are too brief for beginners. May you please prolong them a bit from next time? Thank you for the post.
I think this is one of the most significant information for me. And i’m glad reading your article. But want to remark on few general things, The website style is perfect, the articles is really nice : D. Good job, cheers
купить медицинскую справку
Hi there just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The text in your content seem to be running off the screen in Internet explorer. I’m not sure if this is a format issue or something to do with web browser compatibility but I thought I’d post to let you know. The style and design look great though! Hope you get the problem solved soon. Cheers
Howdy I am so thrilled I found your weblog, I really found you by error, while I was searching on Digg for something else, Nonetheless I am here now and would just like to say thanks a lot for a marvelous post and a all round exciting blog (I also love the theme/design), I don’t have time to read through it all at the minute but I have saved it and also added in your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read a lot more, Please do keep up the superb job.
I truly love your blog.. Very nice colors & theme. Did you create this site yourself? Please reply back as I’m planning to create my very own website and want to know where you got this from or exactly what the theme is called. Thanks!
No matter if some one searches for his required thing, thus he/she desires to be available that in detail, so that thing is maintained over here.
Hi! Quick question that’s entirely off topic. Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly? My blog looks weird when viewing from my iphone. I’m trying to find a theme or plugin that might be able to correct this problem. If you have any suggestions, please share. With thanks!
Wow! This blog looks exactly like my old one! It’s on a entirely different topic but it has pretty much the same layout and design. Outstanding choice of colors!
Thank you, I have recently been searching for information approximately this topic for a while and yours is the best I have found out so far. However, what about the conclusion? Are you positive about the source?
Heya i’m for the primary time here. I came across this board and I in finding It truly useful & it helped me out a lot. I am hoping to offer something back and help others like you helped me.
Hey! Do you know if they make any plugins to help with SEO? I’m trying to get my blog to rank for some targeted keywords but I’m not seeing very good gains. If you know of any please share. Cheers!
I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own blog and was wondering what all is required to get set up? I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny? I’m not very internet savvy so I’m not 100% sure. Any recommendations or advice would be greatly appreciated. Kudos
What’s up mates, how is everything, and what you want to say about this post, in my view its in fact remarkable designed for me.
This is a topic that’s close to my heart… Take care! Where are your contact details though?
We are a group of volunteers and starting a new scheme in our community. Your web site provided us with helpful information to work on. You have performed an impressive task and our whole group shall be grateful to you.
It’s going to be finish of mine day, except before finish I am reading this wonderful post to increase my knowledge.
Hi! This is my 1st comment here so I just wanted to give a quick shout out and tell you I truly enjoy reading through your blog posts. Can you suggest any other blogs/websites/forums that deal with the same subjects? Thanks a lot!
I am extremely inspired with your writing talents and alsosmartly as with the layout in your blog. Is this a paid topic or did you customize it yourself? Either way stay up the nice quality writing, it’s rare to see a nice blog like this one these days..
hi!,I really like your writing so much! percentage we keep in touch more approximately your post on AOL? I need an expert in this area to solve my problem. May be that is you! Looking forward to see you.
WOW just what I was searching for. Came here by searching for %keyword%
Hi, its pleasant post regarding media print, we all understand media is a impressive source of information.
I enjoy what you guys are usually up too. This sort of clever work and exposure! Keep up the amazing works guys I’ve added you guys to my blogroll.
For most up-to-date news you have to go to see internet and on world-wide-web I found this website as a best site for newest updates.
Hey There. I found your blog using msn. This is a very well written article. I will be sure to bookmark it and come back to read more of your useful information. Thanks for the post. I will definitely comeback.
After checking out a few of the blog posts on your website, I really like your way of blogging. I saved it to my bookmark site list and will be checking back soon. Take a look at my web site as well and let me know what you think.
We stumbled over here from a different website and thought I may as well check things out. I like what I see so now i’m following you. Look forward to checking out your web page again.
Good day! I know this is kinda off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could get a captcha plugin for my comment form? I’m using the same blog platform as yours and I’m having difficulty finding one? Thanks a lot!
Have you ever considered about including a little bit more than just your articles? I mean, what you say is fundamental and all. However think of if you added some great visuals or video clips to give your posts more, “pop”! Your content is excellent but with images and clips, this website could undeniably be one of the greatest in its niche. Wonderful blog!
Way cool! Some very valid points! I appreciate you writing this article and also the rest of the site is also really good.
Hello would you mind stating which blog platform you’re working with? I’m planning to start my own blog in the near future but I’m having a difficult time making a decision between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal. The reason I ask is because your design and style seems different then most blogs and I’m looking for something completely unique. P.S My apologies for getting off-topic but I had to ask!
Hey! This is my 1st comment here so I just wanted to give a quick shout out and tell you I genuinely enjoy reading through your blog posts. Can you suggest any other blogs/websites/forums that go over the same subjects? Thanks a lot!
Wow, this post is nice, my sister is analyzing these things, thus I am going to let know her.
I am extremely impressed with your writing skills and also with the layout on your blog. Is this a paid theme or did you customize it yourself? Either way keep up the nice quality writing, it’s rare to see a nice blog like this one these days.
My partner and I absolutely love your blog and find the majority of your post’s to be what precisely I’m looking for. Would you offer guest writers to write content for yourself? I wouldn’t mind publishing a post or elaborating on some of the subjects you write related to here. Again, awesome web log!
Inspiring quest there. What occurred after? Thanks!
It’s actually a nice and helpful piece of information. I’m glad that you simply shared this helpful info with us. Please stay us informed like this. Thanks for sharing.
What’s up to all, how is everything, I think every one is getting more from this site, and your views are good for new viewers.
Hi! I’ve been following your site for a while now and finally got the bravery to go ahead and give you a shout out from Humble Tx! Just wanted to mention keep up the great job!
Первоклассный мужской эромассаж в Москве телефон
I like the valuable information you supply on your articles. I will bookmark your weblog and check again here frequently. I am slightly certain I will be informed lots of new stuff right here! Good luck for the following!
This website was… how do I say it? Relevant!! Finally I have found something that helped me. Thanks!
Whoa! This blog looks exactly like my old one! It’s on a entirely different topic but it has pretty much the same layout and design. Great choice of colors!
Good day! This is my 1st comment here so I just wanted to give a quick shout out and tell you I genuinely enjoy reading through your blog posts. Can you suggest any other blogs/websites/forums that go over the same subjects? Thanks a lot!
I have been surfing online more than three hours these days, yet I never found any interesting article like yours. It’s lovely worth enough for me. Personally, if all webmasters and bloggers made good content as you did, the internet will be much more useful than ever before.
Hello, I check your new stuff regularly. Your story-telling style is awesome, keep doing what you’re doing!
Nice blog here! Also your website loads up fast! What host are you using? Can I get your affiliate link to your host? I wish my site loaded up as fast as yours lol
With havin so much written content do you ever run into any problems of plagorism or copyright violation? My website has a lot of exclusive content I’ve either authored myself or outsourced but it appears a lot of it is popping it up all over the web without my agreement. Do you know any solutions to help reduce content from being ripped off? I’d genuinely appreciate it.
jsEncrypt hello my website is jsEncrypt
nana' hello my website is nana'
komedi thailand hello my website is komedi thailand
togelmbah hello my website is togelmbah
jilbab terbaru hello my website is jilbab terbaru
ns2121 alternatif hello my website is ns2121 alternatif
generator pes hello my website is generator pes
akie lyrics hello my website is akie lyrics
bt 186 hello my website is bt 186
I love what you guys are up too. Such clever work and exposure! Keep up the amazing works guys I’ve incorporated you guys to my personal blogroll.
This blog was… how do I say it? Relevant!! Finally I have found something that helped me. Thank you!
Hi there, this weekend is nice for me, since this occasion i am reading this great informative article here at my house.
Hello there, You have done an excellent job. I will definitely digg it and personally recommend to my friends. I am sure they will be benefited from this site.
Wow, that’s what I was looking for, what a data! present here at this weblog, thanks admin of this website.
Appreciate the recommendation. Will try it out.
It’s remarkable designed for me to have a site, which is helpful for my experience. thanks admin
If you are going for best contents like I do, only visit this web site daily since it gives quality contents, thanks
Hi there everybody, here every one is sharing these experience, thus it’s good to read this weblog, and I used to go to see this weblog daily.
A person necessarily help to make critically articles I would state. This is the first time I frequented your web page and thus far? I amazed with the research you made to create this actual submit incredible. Fantastic activity!
At this time I am going to do my breakfast, later than having my breakfast coming yet again to read further news.
What’s up, this weekend is nice designed for me, because this point in time i am reading this enormous informative piece of writing here at my home.
I’m impressed, I must say. Rarely do I encounter a blog that’s both educative and entertaining, and let me tell you, you have hit the nail on the head. The issue is something not enough people are speaking intelligently about. I’m very happy that I found this in my search for something relating to this.
I do believe all the concepts you have presented on your post. They are very convincing and will definitely work. Still, the posts are too brief for beginners. May you please prolong them a bit from next time? Thank you for the post.
I think the admin of this site is actually working hard for his website, since here every stuff is quality based data.
I think this is one of the most significant information for me. And i’m glad reading your article. But want to remark on few general things, The website style is perfect, the articles is really nice : D. Good job, cheers