الحرب مستمرة..ماذا ينتظر السودان بعد تعليق مباحثات جدة ؟

تتجه الأحداث السودانية على ما يبدو لمزيد من التصعيد والعنف، خاصة بعد إعلان الولايات المتحدة والسعودية تعليق مباحثات جدة لوقف إطلاق النار بين قوات الجيش بقيادة عبد الفتاح البرهان وقوات الدعم السريع بزعامة محمد حمدان دقلو.

ووفقاً للبيان المشترك الذي أصدرته الرياض وواشنطن، فإن قرار تعليق مباحثات جدة جاء بسبب “الانتهاكات الجسيمة” المتكررة لوقف إطلاق النار من قبل الجيش السوداني وقوات الدعم السريع.

ودمرت الحرب المستمرة في السودان منذ سبعة أسابيع، مناطق في وسط الخرطوم، وهددت بزعزعة استقرار المنطقة الأوسع، وأدت إلى نزوح 1.2 مليون شخص داخل السودان، وفرار 400 ألف آخرين إلى الدول المجاورة.

واعتبر البيان السعودي – الأمريكي المشترك أن طرفي الصراع “يدعيان أنهما يمثلان مصالح الشعب السوداني، لكن أفعالهما زادت من معاناة السودانيين وعرضت الوحدة الوطنية والاستقرار الإقليمي للخطر”.

عقوبات أمريكية

وأعلنت الولايات المتحدة، الأسبوع الماضي، فرض عقوبات على الجهات التي وصفتها بأنها “تؤجج العنف” في السودان.

وذكرت وزارة الخارجية الأميركية أن البيت الأبيض “فرض قيوداً على تأشيرات سودانيين، بينهم مسؤولون في الجيش وقوات الدعم السريع، وأفراد من النظام السابق للرئيس عمر البشير؛ بسبب مسؤوليتهم أو تورطهم في تقويض انتقال السودان إلى الديمقراطية”.

كان الرئيس جو بايدن مهد الطريق للعقوبات في الرابع من أيار الماضي، عندما أصدر أمراً تنفيذياً وسّع فيه سلطات واشنطن للرد على أعمال العنف، والمساعدة في إنهاء الصراع وأعلنت وزارة الخزانة الأميركية في بيان، إدراج 4 شركات في قائمة العقوبات، وهي: شركة (الجنيد) للأنشطة المتعددة المحدودة، التي يسيطر عليها قائد قوات الدعم السريع محمد حمدان دقلو، وشقيقه نائب قائد قوات الدعم السريع عبد الرحيم دقلو، وشركة (تريدف) للتجارة العامة التي يسيطر عليها الرائد في قوات الدعم السريع، ألقوني حمدان دقلو، وهو أيضاً شقيق قائد الدعم السريع، و(منظومة الصناعات الدفاعية السودانية)، وشركة (سودان ماستر تكنولوجي) التي تنتج أسلحة ومركبات للجيش السوداني.

وحسب مراقبين، فإن الصراع في السودان لن ينتهي دون حسم عسكري من أحد الطرفين بصورة تجبر الطرف الآخر على القبول بمخرجات أي حوار والالتزام به.

الحسم العسكري

 واعتبر الباحث السوداني سليمان السباعي أن البيان الأمريكي السعودي بتعليق المفاوضات وفرض العقوبات على شركات تابعة لقوات الدعم السريع والجيش السوداني جاء من أجل الضغط على أطراف الصراع؛ من أجل العودة إلى التفاوض وحل النزاعات حلاً سلمياً والوصول إلى وقف دائم لإطلاق النار في السودان”.

وقال السباعي: “الأوضاع في السودان في ظل زيادة وتيرة الاشتباكات لا نرى فيها غير الحل العسكري لأن قوات الدعم السريع لا تنوي الالتزام بما وقّعت عليه من إخلاء للمستشفيات والمناطق الحيوية ومنازل المواطنين، كما تقوم بحشد قواتها ويتم رصد تحركات لها، لذلك لا بد للقوات المسلحة ان ترد على مثل هذه الخروقات، لذلك لا نرى غير الحل العسكري لإنهاء الصراع في السودان”.

وعن أسباب فشل الجيش في حسم المعارك، على الرغم من مرور قرابة شهرين على اندلاع الصراع، قال الباحث: “إن حرب المدن ليست مثل باقي الحروب، وخاصة في الإطار الزمني وفي اسلوب الحسم؛ لأن المعركة تدور داخل الأحياء والمناطق السكنية لافتاً إلى أن “الجيش لدية القدرة على حسم المعركة في غضون 72 ساعة، لكن ما هي الأضرار التي سوف تترتب عليها دمار يعم البلاد”.

وأكد السباعي “أنه حتى هذه اللحظة، لم يستخدم الجيش السوداني القوة المميتة كما وصفها الفريق أول ركن عبد الفتاح البرهان القائد العام للقوات المسلحة، كما أن “هناك صواريخ شواظ (صواريخ سودانية) لم يتم استخدامها وهي قادرة على مسح مربع سكني كامل وهناك القوة القصوى للطيران الحربي لم تستخدم بعد”، فضلاً عن أن هناك أعداد من أفراد القوات المسلحة في وضع الاستعداد لم يتم الاستعانة بهم بعد، مشيراً إلى أن “القوات المسلحة حتى هذه اللحظة استخدمت 15% فقط من قوتها لذلك هناك تأخير في حسم المعركة مراعاة للمواطن السوداني”.

سيناريوهات الصراع

وأشار الباحث السوداني إلى أن هناك عدة سيناريوهات لإنهاء الأزمة الراهنة أولها؛ هو الجلوس إلى طاولة الحوار وتوقيع اتفاق سلام وإنهاء الحرب، لافتاً إلى أن هذا السيناريو يرتبط بشروط معينة.

أما السيناريو الآخر، حسب السباعي، فهو “استمرار الحرب والقضاء على التمرد دون الحاجة إلى الجلوس من أجل التفاوض، ولكن هذا سوف يترتب عليه مزيد من المعاناة والدمار خاصة أن هناك انقسام في الأوساط السودانية، فهنالك من ينادي باستمرار الحرب والقضاء على التمرد وهنالك من يدعو لوقف الحرب وإحلال السلام”.

ويعتقد الباحث أن نتائج المعارك في الأيام المقبلة سوف توضح خارطة الطريق للصراع، سواء يتم حسمها حسماً عسكرياً أو يتم العودة للمفاوضات، مشيراً إلى أن الجهات الدولية يمكنها ممارسة المزيد من الضغط على طرفي النزاع من أجل وقف الحرب بفرض المزيد من العقوبات، لافتاً في الوقت نفسه إلى أنه يمكن للطرفين مواصلة الاقتتال في ظل هذه العقوبات.

موقف الأطراف السودانية

وعن دور الأطراف السودانية في وقف الصراع، يرى الباحث أن “هناك أطراف سودانية تقوم بمساع من أجل وقف الحرب الدائرة بين القوات المسلحة والدعم السريع، ولكن كثيراً منهم يخشى توصيفه بالخيانة، خاصة أن التوجه الشعبي فى السودان يدعم القوات المسلحة ويعتبر الصراع معركة كرامة للجيش والشعب السوداني الذي يرى الدعم السريع مجرد عملاء ومرتزقة موالين لمن يدفع لهم المال وليسوا أصحاب عقيدة”.

وختم السباعي حديثه، بالتأكيد على أن “العودة لمباحثات جدة وإحياء فرص السلام ما زالت قائمة بالسودان بشرط التزام قوات الدعم السريع بالشروط التي وضعها الجيش السوداني والتي يعلمها الجميع وأهمها الخروج من المستشفيات ومنازل المواطنين والخروج من المرافق الحيوية”.

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