التطبيع يقترب..قراءة في رسائل محمد بن سلمان حول العلاقة بين السعودية وإسرائيل ؟

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في سياق التغييرات الجوهرية والإستراتيجية التي تشهدها المملكة العربية السعودية، جاء تأكيد ولي العهد السعودي محمد بن سلمان أن بلاده “تقترب أكثر وأكثر من تطبيع علاقاتها مع إسرائيل” وذلك ربما في أول إعلان رسمي من المملكة حول مستقبل العلاقة مع إسرائيل.
وقبل الإعلان الرسمي عن التطبيع الذى يقترب كما وصفه الأمير السعودي كان هناك الكثير من الخطوات والتحركات والاشارات إلايحابية من المملكة تجاه الكيان الذى كان يوصف حتى وقت قريب بالعدو الصهيوني!.
وخلال لقاءه مع قناة فوكس نيوز الأمريكية، أكد ولي العهد السعودي الأمير محمد بن سلمان استمرار مباحثات تطبيع العلاقات مع إسرائيل، مؤكدا أنهم يقتربون كل يوم من التطبيع.
وتابع: “في حال نجحت إدارة الرئيس الأمريكي جوبايدن بأن تعقد اتفاقا بين السعودية وإسرائيل، فسيكون أضخم اتفاق منذ انتهاء الحرب الباردة (1947-1991)، معتبرا أن الاتفاقيات المرتقبة مع الولايات المتحدة مفيدة للبلدين ولأمن المنطقة والعالم”.
الطريق نحو التطبيع
وشهدت الشهور الأخيرة رسائل سعودية عديدة تجاه إسرائيل أخرها مشاركة وفد إسرائيلي في اجتماع اليونسكو الذى استضافتها لرياض يوم الإثنين (11 سبتمبر/ أيلول الجاري، وذلك في أول زيارة علنية إلى المملكة التي لا تربطها بالدولة العبرية علاقات دبلوماسية.
قبلها بأيام، وبالتحديد في 8 أيلول الجاري استضافت السعودية وفدا من 12 رجل أعمال إسرائيليا في مؤتمر حول الأمن السيبراني عقد في الدمام، عاصمة النفط في الخليج، وثالث أكبر مدينة في المملكة.
وفي يوليو الماضي، شارك فريق إسرائيلي في بطولة “فيفا” للألعاب الإلكترونية، التي استضافتها الرياض خلال الفترة بين 6 إلى 19 يوليو/ تموز.
وفي أيار/ مايو الماضي، كشفت وسائل إعلام إسرائيلية أن المستشرقة الإسرائيلية الدكتورة نيريت أوفير ألقت محاضرة في مؤتمر حول الأمن في الشرق الأوسط الذى استضافته العاصمة السعودية الرياض، وكان الحدث علنياً أمام جمهور من مختلف أنحاء الشرق الأوسط، بينهم ممثلون عن لبنان واليمن والعراق.
كما سبق، وفتحت المملكة أجواءها أمام الطائرات الإسرائيلية خلال جولة الرئيس الأأمريكي جو بايدن في الشرق الأوسط العام الماضي، حيث أقلّت الطائرة الرئاسية بايدن إلى جدة من مطار بن غوريون الإسرائيلي لإجراء محادثات مع القادة السعوديين، لكنّ المملكة نفت حينها أن تكون الخطوة تمهّد لتطبيع العلاقات مع إسرائيل.
ويري مراقبون أن التطبيع السعودي الإسرائيلي خطوة متوقعة منذ توقيع الاتفاق الإبراهيمي الذى رعته الولايات المتحدة بين إسرائيل والدول العربية الفترة الماضية.
وبحسب المراقبون فإن التطبيع السعودي الإماراتي سيكون له تأثيرات كبيرة على الشرق الأوسط وخاصة القضية الفلسطينية.

خطوة متوقعة
وتري د.نجاة السعيد الباحثة السعودية والأستاذ المساعد بالجامعة الأمريكية بالامارات أن “التطبيع أو بناء العلاقات بين السعودية وإسرائيل كان أمراً متوقعاً منذ الاتفاقية الإبراهيمية”.
وقالت لوكالتنا “التطبيع بين السعودية وإسرائيل تأجل بسبب العوامل السياسية والدينية الكبيرة التي تلعب دورًا في السعودية، بالإضافة إلى التحديات الداخلية الناجمة عن الحجم الكبير للسعودية من حيث المساحة وعدد السكان مقارنةً بدول الخليج الأخرى التي قامت بتطبيع العلاقات”.
وتعتقد الباحثة السعودية أن “الجانب الاقتصادي والاستثماري للاتفاقيات الإبراهيمية كان ناجحا جدا على جميع المستويات، وربما هو السبب في التطبيع السعودي المحتمل مع إسرائيل ولكن بشرط أن يتم ربطه بحل للوضع الفلسطيني”.
إلى جانب ذلك، تؤكد نجاة أن “السعودية تسعى أيضًا إلى تعزيز قوتها العسكرية وتطوير برنامجها النووي المدني للدفاع عن نفسها، وهذا يأتي في إطار رؤيتها 2030. مستشهدة بتصريحات ولي العهد أنه في حال امتلاك إيران لأسلحة نووية، ستضطر السعودية إلى السعي لامتلاكها أيضًا، مما يظهر أن السلاح النووي ليس هدفًا رئيسيًا ولكنه ضرورة استراتيجية للدفاع في حال حصول دولة مجاورة عليه”.
بالنسبة لتداعيات التطبيع بين السعودية وإسرائيل على المنطقة، تعتقد الباحثة أنه “بهذه الخطوة ستنطوي صفحة الشعارات والعواطف في حل المشكلات، بينما ستكون البراغماتية والمصالح الاقتصادية هي العوامل الرئيسية في صياغة القرارات السياسية”.
وختمت الباحثة السعودية تصريحاتها بقولها “أن كل المؤشرات تؤكد أن العلاقات الدبلوماسية بين السعودية وإسرائيل قادمة لا محالة ولكن هل سيكون سياسي أم أفتصادي، لافتة إلي أن هناك مطلبين للسعودية قبل اتمام التطبيع، احدهما داخلي يتعلق بالتسليح العسكري، والأخر اقليمي خاص بالقضية الفلسطينية”.

الموقف الفلسطيني
بدوره، يري د.جميل عادي الباحث والخبير الفلسطيني في العلاقات الدولية أن “الجانب الفلسطيني في موقف لا يحسد عليه بخصوص التطبيع السعودي الاسرائيلي”.
وقال لوكالتنا “الوضع السياسي في فلسطين يعاني سواء جراء الاحتلال الاسرائيلي او الانقسام الفلسطيني وعليه فإن اتخاذ موقف حول التطبيع السعودي الاسرائيلي يتوجب أن يكون استراتيجي ومدروس جيدا من كل الابعاد لاسيما ان الجانب الفلسطيني مطبع مع اسرائيل منذ عام ١٩٩٣أى قبل ثلاثين عامن لافتا إلي أنه من الناحية الاخرى فإن المملكة العربية السعودية موقفها ثابت وداعم للقضية الفلسطينية وقد تتأثر العلاقات السعودية الفلسطينية بهذه الخطوة”.
وأكد الباحث الفلسطيني أن “الموقف السعودي الرسمي والشعبي من القضية الفلسطينية ثابت ومناصر وداعم لعملية السلام وانهاء الصراع العربي الاسرائيلى؛ مشيرا إلي أن التحولات التي تشهدها المملكة العربية السعودية في جميع الاتجاهات السياسية والاقتصادية سواء الداخلية او الخارجية؛ تصب في اتجاه دعم الاستقرار، ومزيد من التعاون، وتحقيق الإزدهار خاصة في ظل الظروف التي تمر بها منطقة الشرق الاوسط”.
وأشار إلي أن “النشاط الدبلوماسي الدولي وخاصة الولايات المتحدة تتجه نحو المملكة بهدف كسر حالة الجمود واستكمال بناء علاقات طبيعية مع إسرائيل كما فعلت الدول العربية قبلها؛ مصر والاردن وفلسطين ولبنان والسودان والامارات والبحرين والمغرب وعمان بالتطبيع مع إسرائيل، حيث تريد تل أبيب الحصول على مصالح أمنية واقتصادية والانفتاح مع النظام العربي الرسمي بعيدا عن الإطار الشعبي الدارج” .
ويري الباحث الفلسطيني أن “الاتصالات التي تجريها واشنطن بين السعودية و إسرائيل من اجل استكمال خطة التطبيع متشابكة وغاية في التعقيد، وعدم تقديم تنازلات تاريخية من جميع الاطراف يعزز قناعة الجمهور العربي والجمهور الاسرائيلي الرافض لعملية السلام أنه هش وسيكون تطبيع رسمي وبعيدا عن الرأي العام” .
ويعتقد عادي أن “النشاط الدبلوماسي التي تقوم به واشنطن في المنطقة لتشجيع وتحفيز باقي الدول العربية لإقامة علاقات مع اسرائيل؛ يأتي لتوسيع نفوذها الأمني والعسكري والسيطرة الاقتصادية في المنطقة وتعطيل أي تقارب عربي إيراني، وإبعاد روسيا والصين ودول أوروبا عن لعب اي دور في المنطقة” .
وختم عادي تصريحاته بالتأكيد على أن “المفاوضات التي ترعاها واشنطن بين الجانب السعودي والاسرائيلي لبناء علاقات طبيعية محل إهتمام لشعب الفلسطيني والقيادة السياسية خاصة واهتمام عربي ودولي عامة، وان القيادة الفلسطينية تتابع هذا الملف وتريد تحقيق مكاسب سياسية ووضع خطة زمنية محددة لتحقيق السلام وانهاء الاحتلال واقامة دولة فلسطينية مستقلة عاصمتها القدس الشرقية على حدود عام ١٩٦٧.”

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