بعد إعلان الأمم المتحدة..هل يكون 2024 عام السلام فى اليمن ؟

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جاء إعلان المبعوث الأممي الخاص باليمن التزام أطراف الصراع بوقف إطلاق النار والشروع في عملية سلام برعاية الأمم المتحدة ليفتح نافذة أمل أمام اليمنيين بعد حرب دامية أحرقت الأخضر واليابس..فهل يكون العام الجديد هو عام السلام فى اليمن أم يكون لأطراف الصراع والقوي الداعمة لها رأيا أخر ؟

وكان المبعوث الخاص للأمين العام للأمم المتحدة إلى اليمن هانس غروندبرغ، قد أعلن الشهر الماضي وبالتحديد فى 24 كانون الأول أن الأطراف المتحاربة في اليمن، التزمت بوقف جديد لإطلاق النار والانخراط في عملية سلام تقودها الأمم المتحدة كجزء من خريطة طريق لإنهاء الحرب.
وبحسب وسائل إعلام، أفاد بيان صادر عن مكتب المبعوث الخاص للأمم المتحدة بأنه “يرحّب بتوصل الأطراف للالتزام بمجموعة من التدابير تشمل تنفيذ وقف إطلاق نار يشمل عموم اليمن والانخراط في استعدادات لاستئناف عملية سياسية جامعة تحت رعاية الأمم المتحدة”.
وبدأت الصراع فى اليمن عام 2014 عندما سيطر الحوثيون على مناطق شاسعة في شمال البلاد بينها العاصمة صنعاء، وفي العام التالي، تدخّلت السعودية على رأس تحالف عسكري دعماً للحكومة، ما فاقم النزاع الذي خلّف مئات آلاف القتلى.
وعلى مدار تسع سنوات من الحرب قتل مئات الآلاف من الأشخاص فضلا عن تعرض اليمن لواحدة من أسوأ الأزمات الإنسانية في العالم.
وبحسب مراقبون فإن لا يجب الإفراط فى التفاءل بشأن بيان المبعوث الأممي المتحدة خاصة أنه لا يمكن الجزم بمدى إلتزام أطراف الصراع بوقف إطلاق النار والانخراط فى عملية سلام حقيقة نظرا للمصالح الإقليمية المتداخلة فى الصراع اليمني.
إلتزام غير مضمون
ويري محمد عبادي الباحث فى العلاقات الدولية أنه “منذ الاتفاق السعودي الإيراني برعاية صينية في مارس الماضي، أصبح من الواضح أن حل الأزمة اليمنية وإنهاء الحرب، هو أول ثمار هذا الاتفاق، وهو ما اتضح في تقليل العمليات العسكرية إلى الحد الأدنى، والتزام جميع الأطراف داخل اليمن بالهدنة الأممية إلى حد كبير.”
وقال لوكالتنا ” كان من الطبيعي إعلان المبعوثي الأممي إلى اليمن هانس غروندبرغ عن انخراط جميع الأطراف في عملية سلام، وهو ما يتوافق مع ما أعلن عنه الحوثي قبل أيام من إعلان يناير المقبل موعدًا لتوقيع اتفاق السلام مع المملكة العربية السعودية الحكومة الشرعية، وهو ما رحبت به المملكة.”
وأشار إلي أنه “مع أنّ الاتفاق المقبل قد يوفر السلام في اليمن لفترة طويلة نسبيا إلاّ أنّ الأمر غير مضمون على المدى الطويل، فالحوثي سيظل ذراع إيران الطولى على البحر الأحمر وباب المندب، وسيلتزم بالسلم ما التزمت به إيران، لكنّ في حال توتر الأجواء بين إيران ومنافسيها في المنطقة وعلى راسهم المملكة العربية السعودية، فإنّ الحوثي سيعمل كقفاز إيراني وفق الخطط المرسومة سلفًا”.
المصالح الإقليمية
بدوره يعتقد سامي عمار الباحث فى الشؤون الدولية أن “الأمم المتحدة جهة وسيطة وليست صانعة قرار أو صاحبة اليد العليا في حسم الحرب في اليمن، وإنما صانع القرار يوجد في طهران والرياض خاصة”.
وقال لوكالتنا “الرياض توجهت في سياستها مؤخراً لخفض التصعيد وربما التطبيع مع طهران وزيارة وزير خارجية السعودي لإيران في يونيو ٢٠٢٣ يعتبر بداية لصفحة جديدة لهذا التحول في السياسة الخارجية السعودية وربما تتحول لسلام حقيقي في اليمن”.
ويري عمار أن “إمكانية الالتزام بعملية السلام يعتمد علي تغيير نهج سياسة طهران ضد الرياض، خاصة أن اليمن تعتبر ورقة للنفوذ الإيراني وما يحدث فيها محصلة لما يتم طبخه في مطابخ السياسة الإيرانية والسعودية، لافتا إلي وجود تفاصيل أكثر تحدث في السر بين طهران والرياض لا تظهر للعلن، خاصة مع حرب غزة التي قربت إيران من دول الخليج بدرجة كبيرة”.
وأشار الباحث إلي أنه “لا يتوقع أن محطة السلام النهائية في اليمن قريبة، خاصة مع وجود نزاع حدودي سعودي يمني في نجران، فضلا عن المصالح الإماراتية بالخليج، معتبرا أن “السلام في اليمن تتشابك فيه خيوط كثيرة”.
وبحسب الباحث فإن ” ما يقوم به الحوثيين تجاه حركة الملاحة الدولية على الأزمة خاصة أن بريطانيا والولايات المتحدة لهم مصالح استراتيجية في إبقاء البحر الأحمر وقناة السويس ممرات بحرية آمنة وبالتالي تهديد الحوثيين لهذه الممرات يدفع أمريكا خاصة بمزيد من الانخراط في الداخل اليمني، وبالفعل وجهت ضربات عسكرية بطائرات مسيرة لبعص عناصر الحوثي منذ أيام لمنعهم التعدي علي سفن شركات شحن علي علاقه باسرائيل”.
وأعرب عن اعتقاده أنه ” إذا زاد انخراط أمريكا في الساحة اليمنية لتأمين الممرات البحرية، فإن الداخل اليمني هيزداد فوضى والحوثيين سيزداد رفضهم لتسوية سلمية قريبة”.

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