طعنة في الظهر..هل تؤثر خلافات روسيا وتركيا على الأوضاع بسوريا ؟

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تحدثت الكثير من التقارير الصحفية عن بوادر خلافات قوية تلوح في الأفق بين موسكو وأنقرة علي خلفية المواقف التركية الأخيرة التي تراها روسيا أقرب لمواقف الغرب العدائية تجاه روسيا.
وبحسب وسائل إعلام فقد اعتبر مسؤول كبير بمجلس الدوما الروسي أن تركيا تتحول إلي دولة غير صديقة لروسيا.
ووصف فيكتور بونداريف- رئيس لجنة الأمن والدفاع في المجلس الاتحادي الروسي (مجلس الشيوخ) ممارسات وسياست تركيا الأخيرة تجاه روسيا بأنها طعنة في الظهر، معتبرا أن تركيا مستمرة بشكل تدريجي وثابت في التحول من دولة محايدة الى دولة غير صديقة لروسيا”.
تصريحات بونداريف حول الخلافات الروسية مع تركيا، أكدها المتحدث باسم الكرملين ديمتري بيسكوف، كاشفا عن وجود خلافات في وجهات النظر بين بلاده وتركيا دون ذكر أسباب هذه الخلافات، مؤكدا في الوقت نفسه “إن موسكو عازمة على تطوير الحوار مع تركيا”.
توتر مكتوم
وتشهد العلاقات بين أنقرة وموسكو توترا مكتوما على خلفية أكثر من قرار تركي أثار قلق وغضب روسيا، خاصة بعد موافقة تركيا على تسليم قادة فوج أزوف الأوكران إلى الرئيس زيلينسكي خلال زيارته لأنقرة، رغم وجود إتفاقية بين روسيا وتركيا وأوكرانيا بأن يبقى هؤلاء القوميين في إسطنبول ولا يعودوا إلى أوكرانيا حتي نهاية الحرب.
وكذلك موافقة تركيا على انضمام السويد الى حلف الناتو، فضلا عن إعلان أردوغان خلال استقباله زيلينسكي تأييده انضمام أوكرانيا مستقبلا إلى حلف الناتو.
ورغم الغضب والقلق الروسي من التحركات التركية تجاه الغرب، فإن الخطاب الروسي الرسمي كان حذرا في التعامل مع تركيا، وسعي لتحذير تركيا من الغرب حيث أعلن المتحدث باسم الكرملين أنه يتعين على أنقرة عدم وضع نظارات وردية، فلا أحد في أوروبا يريد انضمامها للاتحاد الأوروبي”.
وتابع بيسكوف: “يمكن لتركيا أن تتجه نحو الغرب، فنحن نعلم بأنه في تاريخها كانت هناك فترات من التوجه المكثف نحو الغرب وكانت هناك فترات أقل كثافة، ولكننا نعلم أيضًا أن الأوروبيين لا يريدون رؤية تركيا في أوروبا”.
وبحسب خبراء فإن المواقف التركية العدائية تجاه روسيا ليست جديدة بل أن أنقرة طالما أخذت الموقف المناهض للسياسة الروسية في معظم الملفات الدولية، مؤكدين في الوقت نفسه أنه من غير المرجح أن يحدث انفكاك في العلاقات الروسية التركية لأنها استراتيجية وعميقة وتصب في مصلحة البلدين.
ويري الخبراء أن علاقات البلدين في سوريا أكبر من أن تتأثر بهذه الخلافات خاصة أن موسكو وأنقرة ينخرطان في الأزمة السورية منذ سنوات ويستطيعان تجاوز أى خلافات خارجها”.
رأي غير رسمي
واعتبر د.عمرو الديب الأستاذ في معهد العلاقات الدولية بجامعة لوباتشيفسكي الروسية أن تصريحات رئيس لجنة الدفاع بمجلس الدوما ضد تركيا لا يمكن التعويل عليها أو التعامل معها بجدية مؤكدا أنها لا تمثل وجهة النظر الرسمية في سوريا خاصة أن من أطلقها ليس شخصية تنفيذية ولا يشارك في عمليات صنع القرار الروسي.
وقال لوكالتنا ” يمكن اعتبار هذا التصريح أنه نوع من الرأي الشخصي حول العلاقات الروسية التركية لا أكثر ولا أقل”.
وأكد الديب وهو مدير النسخة العربية بمركز خبراء مركز رياليست الروسي إن “تركيا دولة مهمة في السياسة الخارجية الروسية ولا يمكن اعتبارها دولة غير صديقة لروسيا لأن هناك العديد والعديد من الملفات الساخنة والمهمة جدا التي تشترك فيها البلدين”.
ويعتقد الخبير في الشؤون الروسية أن “ما حدث في الفترة الأخيرة من أمور يمكن اعتبارها سلبية في العلاقة بين أنقرة وموسكو مثل الإفراج عن قادة كتيبة أزوف الأوكرانية الذين كانوا محتجزين في تركيا أو دعم أنقرة الغير محدود لكييف أو الموافقة التركية على انضمام السويد لحلف الناتو مشيرا إلي أنه يمكن في نهاية التوصل لحل وسط وتقريب وجهات النظر حول هذه القضايا لان روسيا وتركيا يعتمدان بشكل كبير على بعضهما البعض”.
وحول تأثير تلك الخلافات على التنسيق بين البلدين في سوريا، أكد الخبير في الشؤون الروسية أنه “على مدار سنوات الأزمة السورية أثبتت كلا من أنقرة وموسكو قدرتهما على تنسيق المواقف وتجاوز أى خلاف خارج حدود سوريا وذلك لرغبة الطرفين في الحفاظ على مصالحهما المشتركة وقدرتهما على التعاطي مع أى خلافات”.
خلافات ولكن
بدوره، يعتقد د.نور ندا الخبير المصري في الشؤون الروسية أن “تصريحات رئيس لجنة الأمن القومي بمجلس الدوما تؤكد أن مؤسسات الدولة الروسية لم تنسى دور تركيا ورئيسها أردوغان فى دعم الأضطرابات الشعبية فى جمهوريات الاتحاد السوفياتي السابق، ودعمها العسكري لجمهورية أذريبجان فى صراعها مع أرمينيا، فضلا عن دعم أنقرة لجماعات متطرفة مرتبطة بنظام كييف بشبه جزيرة القرم بالسلاح والتدريب، بجانب دور تركيا فى إمداد أوكرانيا بالطائرات بدون طيار في حربها ضد روسيا”.
وقال ندا لوكالتنا إن “المواقف التركية الأخيرة متناقضة ومعادية للمصالح الروسية مما يعتبر بمثابة استفزاز مباشر للإدارة والشعب الروسى، لافتا في الوقت نفسه إلي ما تفرضه ظروف الصراع الدولي من مواقف وعلاقات على جميع الأطراف تبدو للوهلة الآولى غير مفهومة”.
ويعتقد خبير الشؤون الروسية أن “دور تركيا معادى للمصالح الروسية، ولكن فى ظل عالم غير مستقر تسوده الصراعات والحروب معظم مناطقه الجغرافية يمكن تجاوز الخلافات ولو مؤقتا من أجل الحفاظ على المصالح المشتركة والمكاسب الاستراتيجية هو ما ينطبق على الأوضاع بسوريا حيث ترتبط روسيا وتركيا بالكثير من الملفات والاتفاقات”.

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