.. هل يطلق بوتين رصاصة الرحمة على الوجود التركي بـ سوريا؟
بعد أن رفض بايدن لقاء أردوغان وهاجمت روسيا ميليشياته
ليلي موسى
التدخلات التركية في الشؤون الداخلية للعديد من الدول العربية والأفريقية بعد انطلاق ربيع الشعوب منذ 2011م، عبر دعمها للجماعات الإسلاموية الراديكالية وبشكل خاص ذو الخلفية الإخوانية، التي تشكل تهديداً خطيراً على أمن وسلم تلك الدول وشعوبها وحتى المجتمع الدولي عبر دعمها اللا محدود للإرهابين وغزو دول أخرى عبر مرتزقتها.
هذا التدخل الذي بات يرهق المجتمع الدولي ويقف عائقاً أمام إنهاء الأزمات والمشاكل التي تعاني منها غالبية الدول التي شهدت التدخل التركي، بالرغم من تنبه البعض إلى خطورة هذا التدخل مبكراً كما حصل في مصر عبر إزاحة الإخوان عن السلطة وتحجيمهم، ليلحق بها بقية الدول عبر لجم وإبعاد الأحزاب الحليفة لأردوغان، والشخصيات المؤيدة والتابعة له، أمثال عمر البشير ومؤخراً إحباط انقلاب أنصار البشير على الحكومة السودانية، وتحجيم دور حماس في أحداث غزة الأخيرة، بالإضافة إلى تجميد الرئيس التونسي قيس السعيد لعمل البرلمان وتعليق حصانة كل النواب وإقالة رئيس الوزراء هشام المشيشي، وخسارة حزب العدالة والتنمية المغربي في الانتخابات الأخيرة، وحجب البرلمان الليبي الثقة من الدبيبة، حيث بات أردوغان يفقد أوراقه واحدة تلو الأخرى، ويعيش مأزقاً حقيقاً وهو مقبل على انتخابات رئاسية جديدة.
استراتيجية أردوغان
ويبدو أن الاستراتيجية اللعب على المتناقضات التي لعبها أردوغان واستطاع عبرها تمرير العديد من أهدافه وأجنداته المرحلية، لم تعد تجدي نفعاً وبدأت ثمارها تجني على نقيض ما كان يأمله، وحتى انتصاراته المتسارعة التي حققها بداية الحراك الثوري التي شهدتها المنطقة، بات يفقدها عبر نجاح المجتمع الدولي والإقليمي على تجحيم ولجم مؤيديه وأتباعه عن السلطة وبشكل خاص جماعة الإخوان المسلمين.
وحتى يتمكن من كسر عزلته الدولية وبشكل خاص الإقليمية منها نتيجة تدخلاته السافرة في الشؤون الداخلية للعديد من الدول، حاول ذلك عبر تغيير تكتيكات استراتيجيته الاحتلالية التوسعية الاستعلائية إلى إبداء المرونة عبر الحوار والدبلوماسية للمراوغة وكسب بعض الوقت لإعادة ترتيب أوراقه من خلال إعادة تطبيع العلاقات مع العديد من الدول وفي مقدمتها مصر والسعودية والإمارات، وبالرغم من حصول جولتين استكشافيتين كما اسمتها مصر –لاستكشاف أمكانيات الحل وفق الشرعية الدولية-، والحوارات التي حدثت إلا أنها لم تُحدث تقدماً ملحوظاً في هذا المضمار بسبب انتفاء الثقة بين الأطراف المتصارعة وبشكل خاص بوعود أردوغان.
وفي خضم المستجدات المتسارعة التي تشهدها المنطقة ونية ورغبة المجتمع الدولي على تحجيم الحركات الإسلاموية الراديكالية المتطرفة، كانت الورقة الأقوى بيد أردوغان وحكومته هي المعارضة السورية –الائتلاف- ذات الخلفية الإخوانية التي كان يهدد بها المجتمع الدولي، هذه الورقة أيضا بات يفقدها.
سيطرة طالبان
ربما استلام طالبان الحكم في أفغانستان دفع بالعديد من الدول لتنتبه إلى خطورة الإرهابين الموجودين في المناطق الخاضعة للسيطرة التركية أو تلك التي تخضع لاحتلالها بشكل مباشر، وربما يندرج تصريح جو بايدن في هذا المضمار بأن الخطر يأتي من سوريا والصومال واليمن وليس من أفغانستان، بعد تطبيع العلاقات مع طالبان وتقديم الأخيرة تعهدات بعدم التعرض لأمريكا أو السماح للجماعات الإرهابية باستخدام أراضيها أو تهديد المجتمع الدولي.
هذه الخطوة ربما أيضا دفعت بعض الدول إلى إعادة النظر بالمقترح الروسي بإعادة سوريا إلى محيطها العربي والإقليمي قبل الانتخابات الرئاسية السورية لنيل الأسد الشرعية والتي جوبه حينها بالرفض ومازال وخاصة من ناحية عودتها للجامعة العربية لعدم وجود توافق عربي لذلك، ولكن ربما نشاهد تطورات من ناحية بعض الدول في هذا المنحى وبشكل خاص من ناحية مناهضة الإرهاب، وخاصة تلك التي تعاني من تجربة مريرة من الإخوان المسلمين وعلى هذا الأساس يمكننا القول بأن الاجتماع الذي جمع وزيري خارجية مصر السيد سامح شكري مع نظيره السوري فيصل مقداد في نيويورك بشكل علني على هامش اجتماعات الجمعية العامة للأمم المتحدة، تندرج ضمن هذا الإطار.
تفاهم روسي أمريكي
كما يمكننا القول بأن بداية الانفراج للأزمة السورية والتي يلزمها توافق دولي بدأت بوادرها وبشكل خاص عبر التفاهم الروسي – الأمريكي عبر آلية ايصال المساعدات الإنسانية وتفويض معبر باب الهوى، هذا التقارب والتفاهم أسهم بعض الشيء إلى تضييق الهوة بين الدولتين العظمتين المتدخلتين في الأزمة السورية، وبالتالي تقليل فرص أردوغان باستخدام استراتيجياته عبر اللعب على التناقضات.
وهذا ما شاهدناه عندما امتنع جو بايدن الالتقاء بأردوغان، مما دفع أردوغان يصرح بأن صفقة أس 400 ماضية ولا رجعة فيها، بالإضافة إلى توجيه اتهامات عديدة لأمريكية عبر إثارة ملفات خلافية مع الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية. وبالتزامن مع التصريحات الأمريكية أطلقت روسيا جملة من التصريحات النارية والتهديدات الموجهة لتركيا ورئاستها من قبيل إيقاف تفويض إدخال المساعدات عبر معبر باب الهوى، متهمةً تركيا بعدم التزامها بالتعهدات، وتأكيد سيرغي لافروف على التهديدات التي يشكلها الإرهابيين في شمال غربي سوريا، وأن الوجود التركي مؤقتاً في سوريا، وغيرها من التصريحات التي أغضبت تركيا ودفعتها إلى إعادة الحديث عن شبه جزيرة القرم واعتبارها خطاً احمراً وأن الانتخابات الروسية فيها غير شرعية، وهو ما دفعت روسيا بالرد بأن لهذا التصريح سيكون تداعيات، بالإضافة إلى إثارة ملفات أخرى خلافية مع الروس.
ضغوط روسية
ربما المساعي الروسية هذه تأتي في سياق ممارسة الضغط على تركيا للعمل على تهميش الإرهابين وإبعادهم عن المعارضة المعتدلة وفق الرؤية الروسية عبر تشديد قصفها على مناطق المعارضة المدعومة تركياً. حيث أن بعض المناطق التي شهدت قصفاً هي الأول من نوعها منذ تسليم عفرين بعملية مقايضة للأتراك مقابل الغوطة، وقصفت قوات النظام السوري المتمركزة في ريف تل تمر المرتزقة السوريين المدعومين من تركيا المتمركزين في قرية الدردارة، وهي الأولى من نوعها منذ الاتفاق الروسي – التركي عقب الغزو التركي على سري كانيه (رأس العين) وكري سبي (تل أبيض). واستقبال وزارة الخارجية لوفد من مجلس سوريا الديمقراطية والإدارة الذاتية لشمال وشرق سوريا وتأكيدها بالعمل على مشاركة الإدارة والمجلس في العملية السياسية الخاصة بالأزمة السورية التي لطالما تم اقصاءهما بالفيتو التركي، والعمل على إلزام تركيا بالاتفاقية ومنعها من قصف المناطق، ولعب دور الضامن للحوار بين الإدارة والحكومة المركزية، كما سبق ذلك استقبال بوتين للأسد، كل ذلك يمكن اعتبارها رسائل واستفزازات للجانب التركي وممارسة الضغوط عليه قبل اللقاء المزمع عقده بين بوتين وأردوغان، لتقديم الأخير تنازلات والانسحاب إلى ما بعد طريق M4 الواصل بين اللاذقية وحلب وتسليمه للحكومة السورية.
تركيا والميليشيات
وهذا ما لم يرضِ أو يرضخ له الأتراك بسهولة كونهم باتوا يعلمون جيداً أنهم بخسارتهم للجماعات الإرهابية الإخوانية في سوريا تكون حينها قد فتحت على نفسها معركتين؛ الأولى مواجهة مع الإرهابين الذين باعتهم، والثانية مواجهة مع المعارضة التركية الداخلية جرّاء فشل سياسات أردوغان الخارجية وما جلبته من أوضاع اقتصادية متردية على الوضع الداخلي. والأهم من كل ذلك السقوط المدوي لمشاريعه الاحتلالية والمتمثلة بالميثاق الملي عبر الجماعة الإخوانية. وإن عدم تخلي أردوغان عن الإخوان حتى اليوم سبب في عدم إحراز إي تقدم ملموس بإعادة تطبيع علاقاته مع محيطه الإقليمي والدولي.
السؤال الذي يطرح نفسه هل بوتين سينهي حظوظ التواجد التركي في سوريا، استكمالاً للجهود المبذولة من قبل العديد من الدول الإقليمية، وبشكل خاص العربية منها وبمباركة دولية، بالعمل على تحجيم واستبعاد جماعات الإسلام السياسي عن السلطة، وربما يندرج القصف الروسي المكثف مؤخراً على فصائل الجماعات الإسلاموية الراديكالية في سوريا مترافق مع الصمت الأمريكي في هذا المضمار، وما هو مصير جماعات الإسلام السياسي السوري التي وضعت جميع بيضها في السلة التركية؟ وهل ستتخلى هذه الجماعات عن مشروعها السياسي الإسلاموي بعد فقدان قاعدتها الشعبية وقلة فرص اعتلائها السلطة؟
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