بقلم/ شريف عبد الحميد
رئيس مركز الخليج للدراسات الإيرانية
على الرغم من إعلان السعودية وإيران عن التوصل إلى اتفاق في بكين، لاستئناف العلاقات الدبلوماسية بين الرياض وطهران، برعاية صينية، فإن النظام الإيراني سيظل أكبر وأخطر تهديد لاستقرار المنطقة وأمن الخليج العربي، سواء بهذا الاتفاق أو بدونه. فليس من المنتظر أن يغيّر الملالي نهجهم العدواني التوسعي تجاه جيرانهم العرب، لمجرد أنهم وقّعوا على «اتفاق بكين»، الذي لا يعدو أن يكون مهربًا لإيران من عزلتها الإقليمية، ليس إلا!
والسؤال الذي يطرح نفسه هنا، ببساطة، هو: هل من الممكن أن يأمن العرب للجانب الإيراني، الذي لم يلتزم يومًا بعهد أو اتفاق؟
من يقرأ التاريخ، وليس هذا التاريخ منا ببعيد، يدرك جيدًا أن النظام الإيراني دأب منذ مجئ الخميني عام 1997 على إظهار وجهه القبيح لجيرانه العرب، الذين تربطهم بإيران وشائج الجوار والدين والإرث الحضاري المشترك. وكان من المفترض أن تؤدي هذه العوامل إلى صداقة عربية- إيرانية، قوامها التعاون لتحقيق مصلحة شعوب المنطقة. غير أن ملالي طهران دفعونا دفعًا إلى اعتبارهم ألدّ أعداء منطقتنا، والتوجس منهم، بعد ما ذاقته بعض دولنا العربية، ومنها العراق وسوريا ولبنان واليمن والبحرين، من إرهاب وويلات ومصائب على أيدي أصحاب «العمائم السوداء».
ومن المعلوم للكافة، أن إيران هي أكثر دولة على مر التاريخ، سعت إلى التدخل في شؤون المنطقة العربية، الأمر الذي أدى إلى تأزم العلاقات الإقليمية، وأسهم في اتساع دائرة الفوضى وعدم الاستقرار في المنطقة برمتها.
لقد سلكت طهران في تنفيذ استراتيجيتها العبثية والتوسعية تجاه العرب طرقًا شتى، من التدخل المباشر في شؤون بعض الدول العربية، إلى خلق الميليشيات وفق أسس مذهبية، وزرع الخلايا الإرهابية النائمة في بعض الدول، للنيل من استقرارها عند الحاجة، وانتهاءً بتهديد إيران للسلم والأمن الإقليمي، من خلال برنامجها النووي وتطوير قدراتها في مجال الصواريخ الباليستية، وكذلك الطائرات من دون طيار، ناهيك عن تزويدها للميليشيات التابعة لها بالسلاح والعتاد العسكري.
ولقد كان صراع السعودية وإيران، سمة مركزية في المشهد السياسي والأمني في الشرق الأوسط منذ عام 1979، وتنامى بصورة واضحة في السنوات العشر الأخيرة؛ نتيجة السلوكيات والسياسات الإيرانية العدائية والتدخلية في شؤون دول المنطقة الأخرى، حيث جذب هذا الصراع قوى محلية وجدت فيها إيران أذرعًا طرفية لها، تحقق من خلالها مصالحها ومآرِبها الخبيثة.
فهل يعني الاتفاق السعودي- الإيراني الأخير، أن تتوقف إيران عن كل هذه الممارسات العدوانية؟ وهل سيسلم «حزب الله» سلاحه للجيش اللبناني؟ وهل ستسمح إيران للبنان بأن ينتخب رئيسًا للجمهورية؟ وهل ستنسحب الميليشيات الشيعية من سوريا، وتتوقف إيران عن دعم المجرم بشار الأسد؟ وهل ستتوقف إيران عن التدخل في شؤون البحرين والكويت والعراق؟ وهل ستتوقف عن دعم جماعة «الحوثي» الانقلابية اليمنية ماليًا وعسكريًا؟!
كل هذه الأسئلة المشروعة، ستظل بلا إجابات شافية، حتى نرى بأعيننا شيئًا آخر مختلفا من النظام الإيراني، وهو أمر يبدو مستبعدًا في رأي كل المراقبين السياسيين، ممن يعلمون مخططات إيران الشيطانية تجاه أمتنا العربية.
إن هذا الاتفاق انتصار جيو سياسي كبير للصين، في منطقة نفوذ أمريكية، انتصار تاريخي لدولة لم يُعرف عنها سوى اهتمامها بالطاقة والتصدير، وطريق الحرير، والحزام والطريق. وسيكون الاتفاق انتصارًا للسعودية أيضًا، إذا ما عدلت إيران عن مشروعها التوسعي، وعن برنامجيّها النووي والصاروخي، وميليشياتها، وأنشطتها المزعزعة للأمن والاستقرار في الشرق الأوسط.
ويرى بعض المتفائلين، ممن لم يَخبروا العدوانية الإيرانية على مدار العقود الأربعة الماضية، أن تسوية الخلافات بين السعودية وإيران، سوف يساعد دول الإقليم على تجفيف بؤر الإرهاب، ومحاصرة تمويل الجماعات الإرهابية، والميليشيات وجماعات العنف، ولاسيما تلك التي تدعمها إيران أو تستخدمها في تهديد استقرار دول المنطقة الأخرى، الأمر الذي سوف يؤدي إلى دعم الاستقرار والأمن في المنطقة.
ولكن الحقيقة، التي لا مراء فيها، أنه لا شيء من هذه السياسات الإيرانية سوف يتغير، لأنها في صلب العقيدة الإيرانية، وأن الاتفاق الأخير بين السعودية وإيران جاء في وقت مهم للغاية، بحيث يخدم مصالح بكين وطهران معًا، فالصين ترى أن من مصلحتها خلال المواجهة الباردة مع أمريكا كسب أكبر عدد ممكن من الحلفاء واللاعبين الكبار إقليميًا، وضمان بقاء هؤلاء الحلفاء على مسافة من المحور الأمريكي الغربي.
أما إيران، فهي في وضع سياسي ضعيف، بعد دعمها لروسيا في حربها ضد أوكرانيا، وتفاقم تأثير العقوبات الأمريكية والأوروبية ضد ملالي طهران، لذلك كان هذا الاتفاق بمثابة «قبلة الحياة» لنظام على وشك الاحتضار، داخليًا وخارجيًا. فكان لجوء طهران إلى قبول المصالحة مع السعودية، هو مجرد إجراء تكتيكي، لتخفيف الضغط الناجم عن الاحتجاجات الشعبية المستمرة ضد النظام في الداخل، ومواجهة الضغط الأمريكي والغربي من الخارج.
ولا جدال أن الاتفاق، يمثل فشلًا ذريعًا للسياسية الأمريكية في المنطقة، فخلال زيارته للسعودية في يوليو/تموز الماضي، أكد جو بايدن لزعماء الشرق الأوسط أن واشنطن لن «تبتعد وتترك فراغًا لكي تملأه الصين أو روسيا أو إيران»، غير أن سردية بايدن فيما يبدو لم تكن إلا محض أمنيات، لا تمس الواقع المتغير بشدة في الشرق الأوسط.
وفي الختام، لابد لنا من التذكير بأن إيران التي عرفناها على مدار 44 عامًا، وعانينا من عدوانيتها ومخططاتها معاناة مريرة، لن تتغير بين عشية وضحاها، وأن على العرب جميعًا الحذر كل الحذر، مما هو آتٍ، حتى لا يُلدغوا من جُحر إيران مرتين!
ونحن إذ لسنا أبدًا ضد المصالحة السعودية- الإيرانية، بل إننا ضد الخداع الإيراني المستمر. وهذا التحذير ليس كلامنا، بل هو كلام ولي العهد السعودي الأمير محمد بن سلمان، حينما قال في حوار تلفزيوني: «لُدغنا من إيران مرة، المرة الثانية لن نُلدغ».
والسؤال الذي يطرح نفسه هنا، ببساطة، هو: هل من الممكن أن يأمن العرب للجانب الإيراني، الذي لم يلتزم يومًا بعهد أو اتفاق؟
من يقرأ التاريخ، وليس هذا التاريخ منا ببعيد، يدرك جيدًا أن النظام الإيراني دأب منذ مجئ الخميني عام 1997 على إظهار وجهه القبيح لجيرانه العرب، الذين تربطهم بإيران وشائج الجوار والدين والإرث الحضاري المشترك. وكان من المفترض أن تؤدي هذه العوامل إلى صداقة عربية- إيرانية، قوامها التعاون لتحقيق مصلحة شعوب المنطقة. غير أن ملالي طهران دفعونا دفعًا إلى اعتبارهم ألدّ أعداء منطقتنا، والتوجس منهم، بعد ما ذاقته بعض دولنا العربية، ومنها العراق وسوريا ولبنان واليمن والبحرين، من إرهاب وويلات ومصائب على أيدي أصحاب «العمائم السوداء».
ومن المعلوم للكافة، أن إيران هي أكثر دولة على مر التاريخ، سعت إلى التدخل في شؤون المنطقة العربية، الأمر الذي أدى إلى تأزم العلاقات الإقليمية، وأسهم في اتساع دائرة الفوضى وعدم الاستقرار في المنطقة برمتها.
لقد سلكت طهران في تنفيذ استراتيجيتها العبثية والتوسعية تجاه العرب طرقًا شتى، من التدخل المباشر في شؤون بعض الدول العربية، إلى خلق الميليشيات وفق أسس مذهبية، وزرع الخلايا الإرهابية النائمة في بعض الدول، للنيل من استقرارها عند الحاجة، وانتهاءً بتهديد إيران للسلم والأمن الإقليمي، من خلال برنامجها النووي وتطوير قدراتها في مجال الصواريخ الباليستية، وكذلك الطائرات من دون طيار، ناهيك عن تزويدها للميليشيات التابعة لها بالسلاح والعتاد العسكري.
ولقد كان صراع السعودية وإيران، سمة مركزية في المشهد السياسي والأمني في الشرق الأوسط منذ عام 1979، وتنامى بصورة واضحة في السنوات العشر الأخيرة؛ نتيجة السلوكيات والسياسات الإيرانية العدائية والتدخلية في شؤون دول المنطقة الأخرى، حيث جذب هذا الصراع قوى محلية وجدت فيها إيران أذرعًا طرفية لها، تحقق من خلالها مصالحها ومآرِبها الخبيثة.
فهل يعني الاتفاق السعودي- الإيراني الأخير، أن تتوقف إيران عن كل هذه الممارسات العدوانية؟ وهل سيسلم «حزب الله» سلاحه للجيش اللبناني؟ وهل ستسمح إيران للبنان بأن ينتخب رئيسًا للجمهورية؟ وهل ستنسحب الميليشيات الشيعية من سوريا، وتتوقف إيران عن دعم المجرم بشار الأسد؟ وهل ستتوقف إيران عن التدخل في شؤون البحرين والكويت والعراق؟ وهل ستتوقف عن دعم جماعة «الحوثي» الانقلابية اليمنية ماليًا وعسكريًا؟!
كل هذه الأسئلة المشروعة، ستظل بلا إجابات شافية، حتى نرى بأعيننا شيئًا آخر مختلفا من النظام الإيراني، وهو أمر يبدو مستبعدًا في رأي كل المراقبين السياسيين، ممن يعلمون مخططات إيران الشيطانية تجاه أمتنا العربية.
إن هذا الاتفاق انتصار جيو سياسي كبير للصين، في منطقة نفوذ أمريكية، انتصار تاريخي لدولة لم يُعرف عنها سوى اهتمامها بالطاقة والتصدير، وطريق الحرير، والحزام والطريق. وسيكون الاتفاق انتصارًا للسعودية أيضًا، إذا ما عدلت إيران عن مشروعها التوسعي، وعن برنامجيّها النووي والصاروخي، وميليشياتها، وأنشطتها المزعزعة للأمن والاستقرار في الشرق الأوسط.
ويرى بعض المتفائلين، ممن لم يَخبروا العدوانية الإيرانية على مدار العقود الأربعة الماضية، أن تسوية الخلافات بين السعودية وإيران، سوف يساعد دول الإقليم على تجفيف بؤر الإرهاب، ومحاصرة تمويل الجماعات الإرهابية، والميليشيات وجماعات العنف، ولاسيما تلك التي تدعمها إيران أو تستخدمها في تهديد استقرار دول المنطقة الأخرى، الأمر الذي سوف يؤدي إلى دعم الاستقرار والأمن في المنطقة.
ولكن الحقيقة، التي لا مراء فيها، أنه لا شيء من هذه السياسات الإيرانية سوف يتغير، لأنها في صلب العقيدة الإيرانية، وأن الاتفاق الأخير بين السعودية وإيران جاء في وقت مهم للغاية، بحيث يخدم مصالح بكين وطهران معًا، فالصين ترى أن من مصلحتها خلال المواجهة الباردة مع أمريكا كسب أكبر عدد ممكن من الحلفاء واللاعبين الكبار إقليميًا، وضمان بقاء هؤلاء الحلفاء على مسافة من المحور الأمريكي الغربي.
أما إيران، فهي في وضع سياسي ضعيف، بعد دعمها لروسيا في حربها ضد أوكرانيا، وتفاقم تأثير العقوبات الأمريكية والأوروبية ضد ملالي طهران، لذلك كان هذا الاتفاق بمثابة «قبلة الحياة» لنظام على وشك الاحتضار، داخليًا وخارجيًا. فكان لجوء طهران إلى قبول المصالحة مع السعودية، هو مجرد إجراء تكتيكي، لتخفيف الضغط الناجم عن الاحتجاجات الشعبية المستمرة ضد النظام في الداخل، ومواجهة الضغط الأمريكي والغربي من الخارج.
ولا جدال أن الاتفاق، يمثل فشلًا ذريعًا للسياسية الأمريكية في المنطقة، فخلال زيارته للسعودية في يوليو/تموز الماضي، أكد جو بايدن لزعماء الشرق الأوسط أن واشنطن لن «تبتعد وتترك فراغًا لكي تملأه الصين أو روسيا أو إيران»، غير أن سردية بايدن فيما يبدو لم تكن إلا محض أمنيات، لا تمس الواقع المتغير بشدة في الشرق الأوسط.
وفي الختام، لابد لنا من التذكير بأن إيران التي عرفناها على مدار 44 عامًا، وعانينا من عدوانيتها ومخططاتها معاناة مريرة، لن تتغير بين عشية وضحاها، وأن على العرب جميعًا الحذر كل الحذر، مما هو آتٍ، حتى لا يُلدغوا من جُحر إيران مرتين!
ونحن إذ لسنا أبدًا ضد المصالحة السعودية- الإيرانية، بل إننا ضد الخداع الإيراني المستمر. وهذا التحذير ليس كلامنا، بل هو كلام ولي العهد السعودي الأمير محمد بن سلمان، حينما قال في حوار تلفزيوني: «لُدغنا من إيران مرة، المرة الثانية لن نُلدغ».
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