بعد تلميحات أردوغان..هل يتم إطلاق سراح أوجلان في فبراير 2024 ؟

تتداول العديد من الأوساط السياسية ووسائل الإعلام فى تركيا مزاعم وتلميحات حول احتمالية حدوث تسوية لقضيتي كل من عبد الله أوجلان وصلاح الدين دميرطاش.
وكان الرئيس التركي ورئيس حزب العدالة والتنمية رجب طيب أردوغان قد تطرق لاحتمالية تسوية القضية في اجتماع مع أعضاء حزبه مؤخراً.
وأدت تصريحات أردوغان حول أوجلان ودميرطاش إلى انتشار المزاعم بأن صفقة جديدة تجري بين أوجلان والحكومة التركية من أجل التأثير على موقف حزب الشعوب الديمقراطي والناخبين الأكراد في الانتخابات.
وشهدت قضية حزب الشعوب الديمقراطي فى تركيا تطورات جديدة بعد الكشف عن صور لنائبة حزب الشعوب الديمقراطي سيمرا غوزيل مع عضو في حزب العمال الكردستاني قُتل في عملية عسكرية عام 2017، وإرسال التقرير المُعد لرفع الحصانة عنها إلى البرلمان.
وبحسب أحوال تركية، أعلن زعيم حزب الحركة القومية دولت بهجلي إنهم لا يستطيعون التسامح مع حزب الشعوب الديمقراطي والسماح له بالتواجد في البرلمان التركي.
كما اتهم أردوغان حزب الشعب الجمهوري والحزب الصالح وأحزاب معارضة أخرى بأنها في “تحالف سري” مع حزب الشعوب الديمقراطي ويواصلون لذلك يلتزمون الصمت بشأن سمرا غوزيل، وفقاً للرئيس التركي.

أول تعليق من نائبة  الشعوب الديمقراطي بعد صورتها مع قييادي بالعمال الكردستاني
وكانت سمرا غوزيل، أوضحت أن الصورة تم التقاطها في 2014-2015 ، بينما كانت “عملية الحل” جارية، وأنها لم تكن حتى عضوًا في حزب الشعوب في ذلك الوقت.
وقال ديميرطاش، الرئيس المشارك السابق لحزب الشعوب الديمقراطي “السياسيون مسؤولون أمام الشعب وأحزابهم والبرلمان والقضاء المستقل”.

رسالة أوجلان
قبل الانتخابات المحلية 2019، وعندما عندما لم تكن دعوة أوجلان بعدم التصويت لمرشحي المعارضة، والتي بثتها حينها، فعالة، حثّت رسالة عبد الله أوجلان حزب الشعوب الديمقراطي على التزام الحياد في الانتخابات، وذلك قبل إعادة انتخابات إسطنبول، التي ألغاها المجلس الأعلى للانتخابات.
بعد ذلك، دعا دميرطاش ناخبي حزب الشعوب الديمقراطي إلى “التوجه إلى صناديق الاقتراع بشكل أكثر حسمًا” في بيان أدلى به في 23 يونيو 2019، قبل يومين من إعادة الانتخاب. وحينها فاز مرشح حزب الشعب الجمهوري أكرم إمام أوغلو في الانتخابات المُعادة بهامش أكثر من 800 ألف صوت مقابل 13 ألف صوت في الانتخابات الملغاة.
تُعتبر أصوات الناخبين الأكراد ذات أهمية إستراتيجية قبل إجراء الانتخابات في وقت مبكر أو في موعدها.
وبالنظر إلى الاحتمالية الكبيرة لانتقال الانتخابات الرئاسية إلى الجولة الثانية، تصبح الأصوات الكردية أكثر حسماً.
في الانتخابات المحلية في عام 2019، لم يرشح حزب الشعوب الديمقراطي مرشحين في المدن الكبرى الكبرى، مع دعوة دميرطاش لمؤيدي حزب الشعوب الديمقراطي إلى “الذهاب إلى صندوق الاقتراع بحجر في قلبك”.
وكانت 11 بلدية، تضم أكثر من 50 في المائة من سكان تركيا، قد فاز بها مرشحو حزب الشعب الجمهوري المدعومين من تحالف الأمة، وكانت هذه أكبر هزيمة انتخابية لتحالف حزب العدالة والتنمية وحزب الحركة القومية.

هل يقبل أوجلان بـ صفقة أردوغان
الآن، يُزعم أنه قد تكون هناك رسالة أو بيان جديد من إمرالي إلى حزب الشعوب الديمقراطي والناخبين الأكراد، بهدف دعم مسؤولي حزب العدالة والتنمية قبل الانتخابات الرئاسية والبرلمانية المقرر إجراؤها في وقت مبكر أو في يونيو 2023.
وقد ذُكر أنه قد تكون هناك معلومات في هذا الاتجاه في الملفات المقدمة إلى أردوغان فيما يتعلق بالاجتماعات بين مسؤولي الدولة وأوجلان، واحتمال أن تنبع مزاعم أردوغان أوجلان ودميرطاش من ذلك في الكواليس السياسية.
وتنقل أحوال تركية عن الرئيس السابق لاتحاد القضاة والمدعين العامين والمدعي العام السابق لمحكمة النقض عمر فاروق إمينا أوغلو، قوله إن القرار الإجماعي للمحكمة الأوروبية لحقوق الإنسان في عام 2010، “الحق في الأمل”، أن عبد الله أوجلان سيقضي 25 عامًا في السجن، حيث أنه في فبراير 2024 تبرز إمكانية “الإقامة الجبرية أو الإفراج المشروط”، وأنه يمكن إطلاق سراح أوجلان في هذا الإطار.
وأشار أميناغا أوغلو إلى أن المحكمة الأوروبية لحقوق الإنسان قضت في قرارها الصادر عام 2010 بأنه بغض النظر عن الجريمة التي ارتكبت في أحكام مشددة مدى الحياة، يحق للمدان أن يأمل في الإفراج عنه، وإلا فإن الحكم المذكور يعادل الإعدام. كان عدم منح الحق في الإفراج تحت المراقبة بسبب عقوبة السجن المؤبد المشددة “انتهاكًا للحق في الحياة”.
ورفضت المحكمة الأوروبية لحقوق الإنسان مرة أخرى اعتراض تركيا على هذا القرار في 2014.
وتتم المجادلة بأن 25 عامًا بدءا من 15 فبراير 1999 ، عندما أصبحت إدانة أوجلان نهائية، ستنتهي في عام 2024 وأنه يمكنه طلب إطلاق سراحه عن طريق طلب الإقامة الجبرية أو الإفراج المشروط.
لذلك، فإن رسالة من أوجلان أو بيان من محاميه، حول دعوة الناخبين الأكراد إلى “عدم الذهاب إلى صندوق الاقتراع أو البقاء على الحياد في الجولة الثانية المحتملة” من الانتخابات القادمة، ستُمنح الفرصة للتقدم بطلب للحصول على الاعتقال المنزلي أو الإفراج المشروط في عام 2024، في إطار قرار المحكمة الأوروبية لحقوق الإنسان.
يرى مراقبون أن دعوة أوجلان لاستهداف دميرطاش وحزب الشعوب الديمقراطي ستؤدي إلى انقسام في الأصوات الكردية من خلال إعادة إدارة الحزب الموالي للأكراد.
حقيقة فإن إمكانية أن يتقدم أوجلان بطلب للحصول على الإقامة الجبرية أو الإفراج المشروط في فبراير 2024 على أقرب تقدير هو ورقة رابحة للحكومة من حيث احتمالية إجراء انتخابات مبكرة أو في الوقت المناسب.
إذا فازت الحكومة في الانتخابات بتقسيم الناخبين الأكراد وحزب الشعوب الديمقراطي بناءً على دعوة أوجلان ، فلديها فرصة لرفض طلب أوجلان المحتمل في عام 2024 ، لتجاهل قرار المحكمة الأوروبية لحقوق الإنسان، كما في قضيتي كافالا ودميرطاش، وعدم تنفيذه.
ومن الممكن توقع أن يكون هذا أحد موضوعات السياسة المحلية المهمة في الفترة المقبلة.

ذات صلة

رئيس الشيشان يهدد أردوغان بـ أوجلان ..ما القصة

رغم السجن مدي الحياة.. نظام أردوغان يفرض عقوبة جديدة على أوجلان

هل يتم إطلاق سراحه قريبا.. أنباء عن مفاوضات بين نظام أردوغان وأوجلان في إيمرالي

تحدث عن حل القضية الكردية..زعيم المعارضة التركية يكشف كواليس الصفقة التي سعي أردوغان لعقدها مع عبد الله أوجلان داخل محبسه

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