الجبهة الشعبية تعدّل أوتار باريس..سيناريوهات ما بعد فوز اليسار الفرنسي؟

بقلم :نزار الجليدي .كاتب ومحلل سياسي مقيم بباريس

رغم أنّ نتائج الانتخابات التشريعية الفرنسية في دورتها الثانية اتسّمت بنهاية اللاّغالب و اللاّمغلوب لكنها تعتبر منصفة وعادلة و هي منحت الائتلاف الرئاسي الحاكم بقيادة الرئيس ماكرون “معا من أجل الجمهورية” وعموم الفرنسيين المعتدلين و الوسطيين جرعة أكسيجين إضافية كان سيحرمهم اليمين المتطرف منها لو فاز في هذه الانتخابات، وحينها كانت البلاد ستدخل النفق المظلم الذي تقف الأن على أعتابه بفضل فوز الجبهة الشعبية بالمرتبة الأولى مع عدم تمتعها بالأغلبية المطلقة التي تمكنها من تشكيل الحكومة الجديدة .
وبالتالي تجد نفسها أمام حلين :
الأول التعايش مع مؤسسة الرئاسة وأحزابها التي حلّت في المرتبة الثانية على ما بينهما من اختلافات عميقة .أو التحالف مع اليمين المتطرّف الذي حل ثالثا وهو الأمر المستبعد للتناقض التام بين الفكرين و البرامج .

ماذا لو انسحب بايدن..هل تنجح كامالا هاريس في منافسة ترامب ؟

ويبقى ممكنا تحالفا مفاجئا براغماتيا بحتا قد يحدث وهو تحالف الوسط و اليمين المتطرف لإبعاد اليسار على الحكم .وهذه خطوة قد يقدم عليها الرئيس الفرنسي بمراهقته السياسية المعروفة خاصة وأنه فعلها من قبل حينما استنجد بأصوات اليمين المتطرف في الجمعية الوطنية المنحلة حينما أراد تمرير قانون الهجرة الجديد .
وبقطع النظر عن هذه السيناريوهات فانّه يحسب للجبهة الشعبية الفرنسية أنها عدّلت الأوتار مجدّدا في المشهد السياسي ومنعت انزلاق البلاد الى التطرف و العنصرية. وهي قد تواصل القيام بمزيد من التعديل إذا ما تنازلت عن بعض ما وعدت به ناخبيها و الذي يتناقض مع ما أقرتّه الحكومة الحالية ورضيت بالتحالف مع ما من سيتبقى منها من أحزابها من الوسط . رغم أنّ ذلك لن يكون بالسهولة المتحدّث بها لكن البراغماتية التي ميزت اليساريين في فرنسا و سهّلت دخولهم في تحالف انتخابي قد تسهّل عملية التعايش السياسي التي تحدّثنا عنها.فزعماء الجبهة الشعبية وأبرزهم جان لوك ميلانشون يجدون أنفسهم أمام مسؤولية تاريخية جسيمة لأن بأيديهم مفاتيح انقاذ البلد أو إدخاله أزمة سياسية خانقة فضلا عن الاقتصادية الموجودة بالفعل. ..وأي إساءة لاستعمال هذه المفاتيح قد يعاقبون عليها من قبل الفرنسيين في الانتخابات الرئاسية المقبلة في 2027.
فماهي هذه الجبهة و برامجها و خصوصيتها؟
الجبهة الشعبية الجديدة
تحصّلت على 172 إلى 215 مقعدًا من اصل 577 .لتحلّ في المرتبة الاولى بعد أن حلّت ثانيا في الدورة الأولى بنسبة 28 في المائة.
و”الجبهة الشعبية الجديدة” هي تحالف انتخابي يساري واسع للأحزاب في فرنسا، لم يتجاوز عمره الشهر، وقد تم إطلاقه في 13 جوان 2024للتصدّي لزحف اليمين المتطرف الذي كان قد فاز بالانتخابات البرلمانية الاوروبية .
وتجمع الجبهة الشعبية الجديدة بين أحزاب مثل “فرنسا الأبية” (LFI)، والحزب الاشتراكي، و حركة “الخضر” (Les Ecologistes)، والحزب الشيوعي الفرنسي، وحركة “الأجيال” (Generations)، وحركة “المكان العام” (Place Publique)، وعدة أحزاب ومجموعات يسارية أخرى.

الانتخابات البريطانية..ماذا بعد فوز حزب العمال واستقالة سوناك

وعلى الرغم من أن الجبهة الشعبية الجديدة ليس لها زعيم رسمي، إلا أن ميلنشون رئيس حزب “فرنسا الأبيّة” هو الأقرب لقيادتها ومن الممكن أن تتحوّل الى جبهة سياسية استراتيجية دائمة.
وهي ليست المرّة الأولى التي تتوحّد فيها هذا
قوى اليسار الفرنسي (اشتراكيين وشيوعيين وراديكاليين) حيث حدث ذلك لأول مرة عام 1936 تحت اسم “الجبهة الشعبية” درءا لخطر محاولات اليمين والفاشية حكم البلاد، و وهو ما حدث بالفعل حيث حظيت فرنسا لأول مرة في تاريخها بحكومة اشتراكية لكن حكمها لم يدم طويلا، فقد انهارت خلال سنة مع استمرار الإضرابات العمالية ودخول البلاد في الحرب العالمية الثانية.
و تختلف مكونات هذا التحالف في كثير من الملفات المحلية والدولية، لكن البراغماتية السياسية كما قلنا طوى كل الخلافات وتم وضع هدف انقاذ البلاد من المتطرفين فوق كل الاعتبارات.
وأعلنت نقاط برنامجها الحكومي الذي اتفقت عليه كالتالي:
*مكافحة جميع أشكال العنصرية ومعاداة السامية وكراهية الإسلام.
*توفير تعليم مجاني والحفاظ على حريته، وإصلاح المطاعم المدرسية، ودعم الأنشطة اللاصفية ودعم قطاع النقل.
*إلغاء التأمين ضد البطالة وهو ما سيضر بملايين الفرنسيين و المهاجرين.
*زيادة الحد الأدنى للأجور إلى 1600 يورو.في حدود 5الاف دينار تونسي.
*تغيير سن التقاعد من 64 إلى 60 سنة.و بالتالي العودة الى الحالة القديمة.
*زيادة رواتب موظفي الخدمة المدنية بنسبة 10%.
وتعزيز القدرة الشرائية عبر “تحديد سقف لأسعار السلع الأساسية من الغذاء اليومي والطاقة والوقود”.
*فرض عدة تدابير إصلاحية على قوانين الضرائب.
بناء أماكن إيواء تحسبا لحالات الطوارئ.
*إيقاف إنشاء مشاريع الطرق السريعة وغيرها من المشاريع المضرة بالمناخ.
*إلغاء قوانين اللجوء والهجرة التي أقرها ماكرون.

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الدفاع عن سيادة الشعب الأوكراني وحريته، وتوفير الأسلحة اللازمة وإلغاء ديونه الخارجية.

يسارهم ويسارنا

تجربة الجبهة الشعبية الجديدة و نجاحها في الائتلاف الانتخابي و المفاوضات الحالية تذكّرنا و تذكرّ التونسيين بالجبهة الشعبية في تونس و التي تشكّلت كائتلاف انتخابي ثم ككيان سياسي قبل أن تنتهي وتتشظّى بسبب أخطاء سنأتي على ذكرها لاحقا.
وفي كل الانتخابات التي شاركت فيها لم تحصّل الجهة الشعبية نتائج تذكر رغم تمكنها من تكوين كتلة برلمانية في برلمان 2014/2019 ب15نائبا .
فقد تحصلت في الانتخابات البلدية لسنة 2028 على 7.6 بالمائة .فيما تحصل كل من ناطقها الرسمي حمة الهمامي في الانتخابات الرئاسية في2014على نسبة 7.82% .فيما تحصل المنجي الرحوي على 0.81% في الانتخابات الرئاسية 2019.
وهو تاريخ نهاية الجبهة الشعبية وذلك بسبب الزعامات حيث فشلت في ترشيح مترشح وحيد لتلك الانتخابات.
والواقع أنّ نهايتها كانت منذ رفضها أي تحالف سياسي لتكوين الحكومة عقب انتخابات 2014 وخاصة رفض التكتل مع حزب نداء تونس(وسطي)الذي حلّ في المرتبة الأولى و الذي يقف على نقيض مع النهضة التي حلّت ثانيا لكن تعنّت اليساريين هو ما أنتج سياسة التوافق المغشوش بين النهضة و النداء و وهو الذي عاد بالوبال على تونس وعجلّت بنهاية كل الأحزاب الكبرى.
ورغم كل ذلك يبقى اليسار في تونس أكبر التيارات السياسية سنّا في البلاد و الأكثر قدرة على التجميع لكنه لم يفلح في أن يكون مشروع حكم وهويميل و يحب ممارسة المعارضة أكثر من رغبته في المخاطرة بالحكم لأنّ برامجه مع الأسف لم تتطور و بقيت حبيسة ستالين وماركس ومن ولاهم .
وبالتالي فاليسار التونسي اليوم هو خارج التاريخ و خارج الجغرافيا .وعليه أن يتواضع بالتعلّم من تجارب غيره .
فرنسا أمام تحديات صعبة سوف تجعل الفرنسيين أمام خيار القطع مع إرثهم الحضاري باعتبار فرنسا مهد التنوير والثورة ومبادئ المساواة والأخوة والحرية Fraternité Égalité Liberté إلى فرنسا جديدة دون هوية ودون تميز.
على مستوى المؤسسات يبدو أن المدة الباقية من العهدة الرئاسية سوف تكون سببا كافيا لإعادة التفكير في نهاية الجمهورية الخامسة والمرور إلى الجمهورية السادسة وذلك بكل ما سوف تحمله من شلل سياسي ومؤسساتي.

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  253. Above you can see the most popular soccer predictions on OLBG today, so this page is perfect if you need some soccer picks for tonight. If you click on the picks and comments tab in the menu you will sort the picks by volume and then you can view the list in order of popularity. Popular picks at OLBG are sometimes called hot soccer picks.  Now there is no doubt that betting on football is a profitable venture, with too many possibilities. But with the most accurate football prediction website like Kingspredict, you can be rest assure that your bets are based on more than just your gut feeling. All predictions contain the Guru name, success rate, League name, match details and expected outcome. Passionpredict is the BEST 2 Odds Prediction Site that provides daily sure football predictions for our subscribers to maximize their winnings and limit losses.
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  254. Embeddable RSS Widgets Confirmbets provides football predictions to various users and fans from various countries which include United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Turkey, Tunisia, Portugal, Italy, Romania, Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, Ghana, Uganda, Cameroon and many more. We are actively working to increase our reach while providing the best customer service to all our esteemed users, so please send and feedback or recommendations to info@confirmbets and we’ll work towards making our football predictions website better for you. Betrekatips put an end to your search for sites that predict football matches correctly. Our amazing user interface helps new and existing users navigate easily to the best use of the website. Many other websites predict football matches correctly but consistency is what many lacks. We overcame this by acquiring seasoned football experts always online making research and analysis on the best tips.
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  278. Top odds on football Disclaimer: This website does not offer any form of real money gambling, prizes, or simulated gambling. All content provided on this website is purely for informational and entertainment purposes. One common question about the BTTS tips category is whether you should pay for information about a match that starts soon or not. Our answer would be no. In the days before the fixture, there is ample time to research the teams’ form and other statistics, and much of it is well-known. You can email the site owner to let them know you were blocked. Please include what you were doing when this page came up and the Cloudflare Ray ID found at the bottom of this page. You can email the site owner to let them know you were blocked. Please include what you were doing when this page came up and the Cloudflare Ray ID found at the bottom of this page.
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    «Больше всего в нашей ситуации возмущает то, что наши воины стоят на стороне государства на фронте, а здесь, в тылу, их интересы нарушаются государственными структурами. Такого быть не должно!»

    «Для многих кооператив — единственная возможность приобрести квартиру»

    Лариса Зискинд — пайщица «Бест Вей», переехавшая с помощью кооператива с семьей — с дочерью, зятем и маленьким внуком ­- с Дальнего Востока в Белгородскую область. Ее зять, живущий в кооперативной квартире, находится на фронте СВО. «С помощью кооператива я приобрела квартиру в двухэтажном доме в селе Пушкарное Белгородской области — мы с дочерью переехали сюда. Мы уже два года расплачиваемся за него с кооперативом. Не до конца сделали ремонт, кухни фактически нет: моем посуду в ванной. Финансовых средств не хватает, так как зять уже год на СВО, пока ни разу не был в отпуске, и перевести деньги с его карты в ВТБ сейчас непросто, потому что карта — в расположении, до ближайшего банка ехать далеко, а он сам — на линии фронта. Мы фактически живем с выплат на ребенка, на мне кредиты — у меня полпенсии уходит на их оплату. Квартира по Росреестру находится под арестом, хотя арест по квартирам кооператива арест истек — а я боюсь ехать в Белгород, чтобы решать по ней вопрос. Я с ребенком на улицу гулять не выхожу в нынешней военной обстановке — сирены воздушной тревоги постоянные. Побыстрее бы наши войска создали санитарную зону в Харьковской области!»

    По поводу покупки квартиры Лариса сообщает, что «ипотека точно никак не светила. Кооператив — это 14 тыс. в месяц и всего лишь 10 лет. В кооперативе даже студентка может приобрести квартиру, почти не переплачивая. При покупке через банк придется заплатить еще как минимум за одну квартиру».

    «Среди пайщиков кооператива очень много пенсионеров, социально незащищенных людей, это была их единственная возможность приобрести квартиру, — говорит Лариса. — Из-за репрессий против кооператива мы можем лишиться единственного жилья. Мы куда только не писали в защиту кооператива. Но, видимо, слишком большой куш. Кооперативу не дают даже платить налоги. Надеемся, что отношение к кооперативу в результате справедливого разбирательства изменится в лучшую сторону».

    «Мы очень устали. Но боремся»

    Людмила Гарина — пайщица кооператива из Саратова, зять которой, проживающий вместе с ней в кооперативной квартире, участвует в СВО. «Я проживаю в кооперативной квартире почти три года вместе с дочерью и внуком, вносим ежемесячные платежи через госуслуги».

    «Возможности взять ипотеку не было, — говорит Людмила. — Фактически у нас один работающий человек — дочь, зять мобилизован, внук — студент, внучке — четыре года. Мы с мужем пенсионеры».

    «У нас с кооперативом проблем не было никаких, — говорит она, — но сейчас уверенности в завтрашнем дне нет. Пишем во все возможные инстанции, в том числе в Администрацию президента, ходили на прием к Володину. Пока ничего не помогает. Вся надежда на то, что суд разберется».

    «Хотелось, чтобы вопрос о возобновлении работы кооператива быстрее решился, — говорит она, — тогда стало бы проще. Когда кооператив заработает, будет совершенно иная ситуация. Мы очень устали. Но боремся».

    «20 тыс. пайщиков кооператива не так просто остановить»

    Алла Яровая — пайщик кооператива из Пятигорска и представитель пайщицы Людмилы Дворцовой, сын которой, Игорь Дворцов, находился на СВО, а теперь служит внутри страны. «Людмила приобрела с помощью кооператива в Пятигорске квартиру для своего сына. Вступила в кооператив она в 2017 году, сначала находилась в накопительной программе — накапливала на первоначальный паевый взнос, накопила, потом стояла в очереди на приобретение жилье, приобрела с помощью кооператива однокомнатную квартиру за 1450 тыс. рублей. Потом приобрела квартиру и постепенно полностью за нее расплатилась. Работала для этого на двух работах, в том числе санитаркой в инфекционном отделении».

    Но оформить квартиру в собственность не удалось, так как она оказалась под арестом, поясняет Алла. И хотя арест 19 февраля истек и больше не накладывался, суд первой инстанции в Пятигорске этот арест подтвердил. «По вопросу получения права собственности и снятия ареста мы обратились в Пятигорский городской суд, где судья очень предвзято отнесся к решению вопроса и мы получили отказ, — говорит Алла, — Хотя аналогичный вопрос рассматривался в Минераловодском суде и там судья вынесла положительное решение и в настоящий момент пайщик получил право собственности на свою квартиру. Предстоит рассмотрение в апелляционной инстанции — несмотря на то, что рассматривать нечего: ареста на недвижимость кооператива сейчас нет. А на квартиру Людмилы Дворцовой — почему-то есть».

    «Кооператив — единственная возможность для людей со средним достатком получить жилье, — говорит Алла, — Нерешенный вопрос — налоги. Мы вынуждены платить налоги с юридических лиц, но мы же физические лица. К депутатам — с нас берут налог как с юрлица. Почему мы должны оплачивать — мы же физлица? Во многих регионах это сделано. Надеемся добиться того, чтобы это было сделано по всей стране».

    «20 тыс. пайщиков кооператива не так просто остановить, — подчеркивает пайщица. — Это наши деньги, и мы за них боремся. Обязательно отстоим наш кооператив!»

    «Активно участвую в защите кооператива»

    У пайщицы кооператива, жительницы из Ленинградской области Татьяны Власенко старший сын находится на СВО с сентября 2022 года. «Три месяца проходил обучение, а потом оказался „за ленточкой“, — говорит Татьяна. — Мы должны были в конце лета 2022 года купить квартиру с помощью кооператива — квартиру планировали большую. Но работа кооператива оказалась заблокирована, и кооператив не может ничего купить уже более двух лет, так как и его счета, и его деятельность заблокированы. Деньги пайщиков, собранные для приобретения квартир, при этом обесцениваются».

    «Я активно участвую в защите нашего кооператива, — говорит Татьяна. — Езжу на все суды в Санкт-Петербурге, хотя живу в деревне — ехать два с половиной, а то и три часа, мне 64 года, а путь неблизкий. И сын в этом поддерживает меня».

    «Вот уже более двух лет работа кооператива заблокирована, деньги обесцениваются»

    У пайщицы из Хабаровска Натальи Ромашко на СВО было два племянника — один, к сожалению, погиб. Планировалась покупка большой квартиры в Хабаровске, Наталья состояла в накопительной программе. «Вот уже более двух лет работа кооператива заблокирована, деньги обесцениваются, — говорит Наталья. — Я участвую в защите кооператива, пишу письма в прокуратуру, в высшие государственные инстанции, потому что нарушаются наши права, нас лишают возможности приобрести квартиру вне ипотечной системы. Пока приходят одни отписки, но борьбу мы продолжаем!»

    «Ситуация — как на СВО»

    Пайщица Светлана Иванова из Новосибирска, волонтер СВО, планировала приобрести с помощью кооператива две квартиры — для себя и для сына, который воюет на СВО добровольцем. «До этого я продала квартиру и сейчас вообще без собственного жилья, — говорит она. — Вступила в кооператив по накопительной программе, рассматривали для приобретения квартиры Крым и Новосибирск. В СВО участвую как волонтер — не остаюсь в стороне, когда Родине нужна помощь».

    «От ситуации с кооперативом очень многие люди пострадали, — говорит Светлана. — Ситуация — как на СВО. И еще больше пострадают, если реализуется плохой сценарий. Хочется надеяться на то, что все образуется, правда восторжествует. Заявление о выходе из кооператива и возврате паевых средств я не подавала. Готова продолжить участие в нем, готова приобрести недвижимость с его помощью: это самый лучший вариант покупки квартиры».

    «Сдаваться в планах нет»

    Пайщица Марина Янковская родом из Хабаровска, она переехала в Новороссийск, ее супруг погиб на СВО. «У нас уже подходила очередь на покупку квартиры в Новороссийске для нашей семьи, мы должны были подбирать объект, — рассказывает она. — Но два года назад все остановилось. Хотели приобрести двухкомнатную квартиру в Новороссийске. Деньги лежат на арестованных счетах кооператива — а недвижимость за это время подорожала. Надеемся хоть что-то приобрести после того, как счета разблокируют».

    «Мы всячески поддерживаем кооператив, — говорит Марина. — Записывали видео, что мы не обманутые, а вполне довольные пайщики, объясняли, что это никакая не пирамида, а организация, созданная в помощь людям. Ждем, когда снимут эти аресты. Сдаваться в планах нет».

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