في ظل التوترات الحالية..هل تتغير خريطة النفوذ العسكري بسوريا ؟

مع دخول الأزمة السورية عامها الـ 14 دون بوادر عن حل سياسي ينهي معاناة السوريين، يبدو أن التوترات العسكرية ستكون حاضرة بقوة خلال الأيام المقبلة خاصة في ظل وجود تصعيد على مختلف نقاط التماس داخل الأراضي السورية.

وبحسب خبراء فإن الأزمة السورية لن تشهد جديدا خلال الفترة المقبلة في ظل ارتضاء القوى الفاعلة بمسار الأوضاع الحالي ولكن قد تشهد تغيير حال وجود تغيير في الإدارة الأمريكية وبالتحديد حال عودة دونالد ترامب لرئاسة أمريكا في الانتخابات المقررة قبل نهاية العام الجاري.

على الصعيد الميداني، أعلنت هيئة تحرير الشام التي تسيطر على مقاليد الأمور بإدلب أن عناصرها تصدوا الثلاثاء 19 آذار لمحاولة تسلل نفذتها قوات النظام السوري مدعومة بمجموعة من ميليشيا “حزب الله” اللبناني، على محور كفرعمة بريف حلب الغربي.

كما مناطق متفرقة في ريفي حلب وإدلب تبادل القصف المدفعي والصاروخي بين الفصائل الموالية لتركيا والقوات الحكومية، وسط تسجيل قتلى وجرحى بصفوف القوات المتسللة.

وفي سياق آخر أعلنت قوات “جبهة الأكراد”، صد محاولة تسلل للفصائل الموالية لتركيا، في قرية البويهج غربي منبج بريف حلب، دون الإعلان عن قتلى.

بالتزامن تلك التطورات، نفذ جيش الاحتلال الإسرائيلي فجر الثلاثاء، هجمات صاروخية استهدفت ضرب المستودعات الاستراتيجية في سوريا، التي تضم كميات ضخمة من الأسلحة والذخائر في محيط العاصمة دمشق.

جمود رغم التصعيد

 وقال فراس قصاص رئيس حزب الحداثة و الديمقراطية السورية‏ في تصريحات هاتفية لـ “ألشمس نيوز” إن التوترات الميدانية التي تشهدها الساحة السورية من الصعب أن تقود لحدوث أي تغيير مهم في توزع مراكز ومعادلات القوة على الأرض السورية.

ويري قصاص أن ما يحصل من تصعيد في نقاط التماس المختلفة هو في الإطار الطبيعي الذي لا يسمح باشتعال صراع وحسمه لمصلحة اي طرف ، كما إن ما يحدث سواء من ناحية الغارات الإسرائيلية على دمشق وسواها أو من تصعيد متقطع على عموم نقاط التماس بين معادلات القوى العسكرية في سورية الا استمرارا و ثباتا للإيقاع ذاته الذي لم يزل سائدا منذ بداية فترة إدارة بايدن في الولايات المتحدة و زيادة حدة الاستقطاب الدولي بعد الغزو الروسي لاوكرانيا  ثانيا وما يعنيه ذلك من غياب مفاعيل الحسم في الوضع السوري .

ويعتقد رئيس حزب الحداثة و الديمقراطية أن الأزمة السورية ستظل في حالة من شبه الجمود في إطارها العام رغم وجود اختلالات عنفية متقطعة ومستمرة في مساحات التماس المختلفة ولكنها غير كافية  لإحداث إعادة تموضع جديد لخرائط القوة في سورية ولا لدفعها نحو الاستقرار والهدوء الشامل ، وهو أمر مرشح للإستمرار حتى حدوث تغيير  كبير في القوي الفاعلة في الصراع السوري وهو ما يمكن حدوثه حال عودة ترامب للبيت الأبيض بالولايات المتحدة وتداعيات ذلك على الحرب الروسية الأوكرانية و على غيرها من الملفات التي تخص سوريا وتتاثر بها أوضاعها .

وحذر قصاص من  إمكانية استغلال بعض الأطراف المنخرطة في الشأن السوري فترة القيود التقليدية التي تعانيها السياسة الخارجية الامريكية  في الفترة الزمنية التي تسبق الانتخابات الرئاسية في الولايات المتحدة، وبالتالي محاولة المضي قدما في توسيع مناطق نفوذها على الارض أو البداية في التحضير لذلك على الأقل.

توترات لم تتوقف

من جانبه، قال شكري شيخاني رئيس التيار السوري الإصلاحي وعضو مجلس الرئاسة في مجلس سوريا الديمقراطية في تصريحات خاصة لـ”الشمس نيوز”إن الاحداث بسوريا لم تتوقف منذ 15 من اذار 2011 حتى الأن، لافتا إلي أن التوترات وإن خفتت قليلا في بعض المحافظات لكنها كانت تتصاعد بمحافظات أخرى.

وأشار إلي أن السويداء تشهد منذ ما يقارب 7 أشهر حراك سياسي وشعبي متوهج، كما بدأت الأوضاع تتصاعد بالقنيطرة ودرعا وهناك مواجهات مع النظام والسلطه الحاكمة في دمشق.

 وبالنسبة للأوضاع في إدلب، يعتقد رئيس التيار السوري الإصلاحي أن ما يجري من قبل المرتزقة مع قوات النظام جزء من عمليات التصعيد التي تخفت بعض الأحيان  وتتوهج في أخري، لافتا إلي أن الوضع الحالي مهيئ لتصعيد أكبر وربما يكون على أكثر من جهة .

وشدد على أن ما تقوم به قسد تجاه محاولات الميليشيات المدعومة من تركيا للهجوم على أطراف منبج هو لحفظ امان واستقرار كافة السكان المتواجدين في المناطق الخاضعة للإدارة الذاتية، محذرا من أن الأمور قد تأخذ منحى أخر حال لم يتم لجم هذه الفصائل.

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